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Item Conturile naționale de transfer pentru Republica Moldova: profilul de vârstă al consumului și venitului din muncă(INCE, 2022) Gagauz, Olga; Prohnitchi, ValeriuThe NTA methodology is a modern system for estimating intergenerational balances within the System of National Accounts (SNA), which makes it possible to assess the contribution of individual age groups to the production and distribution of national income, as well as to explore the characteristics of income and consumption. NTA for Moldova, built for 2019, reflects the features of the socioeconomic context, the level of labor income, opportunities for savings, and the specifics of the consumption of the population. The big size of the economic life cycle deficit, defined as the difference between labor income and consumption, is determined by the low rate of employment and high costs of life in Moldova. The share of private transfers in LCD covering is much higher than that of public transfers. The private sector has a substantial role in intergenerational distribution, especially for the young generation, the older persons also being donors of private transfers. Education and health care are provided predominantly by the public sector. The public pension expenditure represented about one-third of the total volume of public transfers. People in the 30–48 age span produce the lifecycle surplus. They generate the largest share of labor income and contribute to both private and public transfers. The article was elaborated within the State Program Project (2020-2023) 20.80009.0807.21 „Migration, demographic changes, and situation stabilisation policies”. The implementation of the NTS methodology in Moldova was carried out with the financial support of the Population Fund (UNFPA).Item Fertility transition from traditional to modern model in Moldova: exploration in base on the “Generation and gender survey”(INCE, 2022) Grigoras, Ecaterina; Gagauz, OlgaIn Moldova, like in other countries of Eastern Europe, after the 1990s,fertility transition fromthe traditional model to the modern one is occurring. Astable fertility decline was observed up to 2004, while the total fertility rate settled at 1.7-1.8 births per woman in the following years. Although the indicatoris higher compared to other states,the factors determining this level and the likelyfuture trends are essentialquestionsto be asked. We assumesome of the sociodemographic characteristics of women, the socioeconomic and cultural context impact the reproductive behavior and determine whether to keep the traditional model or switch to the modern one. The research isconducted to highlight the differences in women's reproductive behavior and the sociodemographic characteristics that impact the number of children born.The research is based on the" Generations and Gender Survey"conducted in Moldova in 2020. A detailed profile of women's reproductive behaviour was presented on the base of four identified clusters, which characterize the fertility transition from the traditional to the modern model. Findings reveal that the traditional model of reproductive behavior with a large family or, at most, with two childrenis prevalent. Medium and high education, late age at marriage and urban residence of women have a negativeeffect on the number of children ever born. The study quantifies the heterogeneity of reproductive behavior and has important implications forthe scientific perception of current trends and prospective fertility dynamicsin Moldova.Item Situația demografică a Republicii Moldova: starea actuală, factori determinanți și perspective pentru deceniile următoare(INCE, 2018) Gagauz, OlgaÎn acest articol este prezentată analiza situației demografice în Republica Moldova și a tendințelor pentru următoarele decenii. În baza datelor statisticii curente și recensămintelor populației se examinează schimbările principale în dinamica fertilității, mortalității și migrației, precum și impactul acestora asupra reproducerii populației. Se constată că în pofida unei tendințe ferme de reducere a fertilității, descendența finală a femeilor constituie în jur de doi copii. Se înregistrează difirențieri semnificative în profil teritorial, cel mai scăzut nivel al fertilității fiind înregistrat în mun.Chișinău. În domeniul mortalității se menține o situație nefavorabilă. Dacă la femei speranța de viață a depășit cea mai înaltă valoare a acestui indicator înregistrat în anul 1989 (72,3 ani), ajungând la 73,7 ani în anul 2014, la bărbați maximumul din anul 1989 (65,6 ani) încă nu a fost depășit (64,9 ani). Migrația internațională continuă să afecteze dinamica populației și structura pe vârste a acesteia. Conform prognozelor demografice, se estimează pierderi enorme ale efectivului populației Republicii Moldova în deceniile viitoare. În condițiile actuale urmează de a revizui abordarea cu privire la situația demografică prin accentuarea necesității de a ameliora indicatorii calitativi ai populației, mai ales, starea de sănătate și nivelul de educație.Item Depopularea Republicii Moldova în contextul declinului populației din Europa Centrala și de Est(Foxtrot, 2021) Gagauz, OlgaIn recent decades, the population of the Republic of Moldova has been steadily declining, and this trend will persist in the coming decades. Compared to other countries in Central and Eastern Europe, the Republic of Moldova is most affected by depopulation. The present study expands evidence on depopulation in the Republic of Moldova based on the demographic projection developed by Centre for Demographic Research for 2019-2040. The results show that in the coming decades, the demographic decline would continue at a fast pace, increasing from 1.6% to 2.3% annually. The population number may decrease with 34.5% by 2040. The population decline caused by external migration will be 776.9 thousand. The population age structure will change significantly. The emigration of younth has an important negative effect and leads to a decrease in the number of working age youth. Meanwhile the return of 50+ year old migrants from abroad leads to an increase in the proportion of older people in the population as a whole. It was concluded that the effects of depopulation are much more unfavorable than those associated with population aging. Being determined by mass migration depopulation is associated with the loss of human capital, the negative impact on quality of life, social cohesion and socio-economic development.Item Speranţa de viaţă sănătoasă a populaţiei din Republica Moldova(INCE, 2015) Gagauz, Olga; Avram, CristinaÎn lucrare sunt prezentate rezultatele cercetării cu privire la speranța de viaţă sănătoasă a populaţiei din Republica Moldova. Calculele s-au efectuat după metoda lui Sullivan D. în baza datelor Cercetării Bugetelor Gospodăriilor Casnice (BNS), perioada 2006-2013. Speranţa de viață şi speranţa de viaţă sănătoasă sunt într-o creştere constantă, dar lentă, pentru ambele sexe şi toate grupele de vârstă. Proporția timpului petrecut în stare de sănătate foarte bună/bună şi satisfăcătoare, de asemenea, este în creştere, inclusiv sănătatea vârstnicilor atestă o ameliorare. Totuşi diferenţele dintre sexe persistă, astfel, femeile trăiesc mai mult comparativ cu bărbaţii, dar într-o stare de sănătate mai rea.Item Costurile economice ale mortalității premature în Republica Moldova("Tipografia Centrală”, 2019) Gagauz, Olga; Onofrei, Nicoleta; Pahomii, IrinaMenținerea unui nivel înalt al mortalității prezintă una din cauzele importante ale declinului demografic în Republica Moldova, provocând pierderea capitalului uman, prejudicii economice semnificative și afectând diferite sfere ale vieții umane. Reducerea mortalității premature reprezintă o rezervă importantă pentru remedierea situației. Scopul cercetării: estimarea indicatorului Ani Potențiali de Viață Pierduți din cauza mortalității premature, analiza comparativă a structurii pierderilor înregistrate pe grupuri de vârstă și cauze de deces pentru ambele sexe și estimarea mărimii echivalentului economic al acestora. Studiul este bazat pe teoria capitalului uman, care vizează venitul potențial nerealizat din cauza părăsirii timpurii a pieței muncii determinat de decesul prematur. Cele mai semnificative pierderi economice determinate de mortalitatea prematură a femeilor sunt condiționate de tumori, iar a bărbaților de mortalitatea prin cauze externe. Cea mai mare parte a pierderilor economice determinate de mortalitatea prematură este remarcată pentru populația adultă (40-54 de ani pentru bărbați și 40-49 de ani pentru femei). Analiza pe cauze de deces a evidențiat importanța majoră a unor cauze ce pot fi evitate. Pentru monitorizarea eficientă a mortalității premature este necesară introducerea și definirea clară a noțiunii de mortalitate prematură în politicile și strategiile de bază, dar și sectoriale, și introducerea indicatorilor specifici.Item Молдова на пути второго демографического перехода: структурные изменения рождаемости(2013) Gagauz, OlgaAfter the 1990s, fertility started declining in Moldova. The adjusted period total fertility rate remains at the level of 1.5 children per woman over the recent years. The youngest cohort born in 1970 year, presently almost completed its reproductive function, has a relatively high fertility rate, about two children per woman. In the mid-1990s, the Second Demographic Transition in Moldova began. Nevertheless, the Moldovan fertility still shows its traditional features like relatively high age-specific fertility rate among females aged 15-19 years of old, pre-marital conception and marriages enforced by unplanned pregnancy. However, postponement of childbearing to later ages, an increase of mean protogenetic interval, particularly among women with higher education, are manifested.Item Measuring population health in Moldova: health expectancies(Karolinum Press, 2018) Avram, Cristina; Gagauz, OlgaHealth measures are decisive for the development and implementation of population health policies. Monitoring health indicators can lead to improvements in health and decrease in the inequalities among subpopulations. The life expectancy at birth for the Moldovan population did not increase considerably during the last decades, due to the social and economic crisis which led to high mortality and poor health. In Moldova, no aggregated health indicators are utilized for health monitoring. Therefore, the authors calculated health indicators to assess the population health and argue their importance. Mortality and subjective data on self-perceived health and self-rated morbidity from the Household Budget Survey was used for constructing period morbidity-mortality tables. Thus, the authors applied Sullivan’s method to calculate the life expectancy in very good/good/fair health and the life expectancy without chronic morbidity for the period 2006–2015. The life expectancies in very good/good/fair health showed a compression of morbidity in the older ages for both sexes, and for rural and urban types of residence. The life expectancies without chronic morbidity for males and for urban dwellers demonstrated an expansion of morbidity. Although the life expectancy is slowly increasing, the trends in population health are contradictory, depending on the applied measures. The health expectancy indicators, based on self-perceived health, depict the actual situation in the population health. These indicators are becoming more essential with the ageing process and can be used for the tailoring of social and health policies and services to the real needs of the population.Item Evoluţia familiei în Republica Moldova din perspectiva celei de-a doua tranziţii demografice(IEFS, 2013) Gagauz, OlgaThe article discusses the spatial patterns in the Second Demographic Transition in the Republic of Moldova. The data show significant changes in trends affecting families, such as accelerated postponement in family formation(trends towards marriage and births at later years of life); decline of entry into marriage and spread of non-marital cohabitation; abrupt drop in births and rise in extra-marital births. The results show that the spatial pattern is mainly determined according to the regional socioeconomic situation, but the cultural characteristics have a secondary effect. In the Republic of Moldova, the changes in timing of demographic events (marriage and childbirth) occur at much slower pace compared to other countries, including those in the Central and Eastern Europe. The family formation at relatively young ages provides more space for birth planning. The beginning of the reproductive cycle in the family is relatively early, so that the couples have more time to review their reproductive plans in comparison with the Western countries, where the procreation process starts at the age of 30 years old.