RSES - NIER

Institutional Repository of National Institute for Economic Research

Welcome to the platform of the open repository in the field of economic and social research of the National Institute of Economic Research from Republic of Moldova.

The repository is a digital archive and offers users open access to publications with full text for scientific, educational and methodological purposes. The materials placed in the collections are allowed to be used exclusively non-profit, with the compulsory indication of the author of the work and hyperlinks at this archive.

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    Interdisciplinary perspectives on vulnerability: a comparative analysis of definitions and conceptual implications
    (Independenta Economica, 2025) Ciobanu, Mihail
    This paper explores the concept of vulnerability from an interdisciplinary perspective, highlighting its complexity and evolving nature in academic and lexicographic contexts. Starting with the etymology of the term-literally meaning “the capacity to be wounded”- the study examines how its meaning has expanded beyond physical dimensions to encompass psychological, social, economic, legal, and ecological aspects. The comparison of definitions brings together a wide range of definitions from renowned dictionaries and academic literature, identifying the advantages and limitations of each approach. The findings show that general definitions offer clarity and versatility but often overlook contextual and causal factors. In contrast, academic definitions tend to be more comprehensive, integrating elements such as adaptive capacity, resilience, uncertainty, and affective dimensions, yet they can become overly abstract or difficult to apply in practice. A central challenge is balancing specificity with general applicability, and acknowledging both the universal nature of vulnerability and the need for targeted interventions for disadvantaged groups. The paper emphasizes the importance of an interdisciplinary approach to defining vulnerability, as well as the ongoing conceptual adaptation required in response to emerging global risks and social transformations. It also stresses the essential role of context in using the term, suggesting that no single, universally valid definition exists-only formulations tailored to specific analytical, policy, or practical objectives. This study thus contributes to a nuanced understanding of a key concept in public policy, social intervention, and academic research. The paper was elaborated within the framework of the "Young researchers 2024-2025" competition project 24.80012.0807.09TC "Strengthening scientific and methodological support for reducing social vulnerability by increasing the level of financial inclusion of low-income groups" (2024-2025).
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    Classification of socioeconomic support models for children in difficulty
    ("Independenta Economica", 2025) Ciobanu, Mihail
    Children in difficulty represent a vulnerable group of population whose welfare relies heavily on the effective integration of economic, social, and educational support systems. Prior to modern welfare systems, the community traditionally assumed responsibility for vulnerable children's needs. Contemporary support systems have evolved along three main paradigms: child protection, family support, and community care, each emphasizing different balances of state involvement, community responsibility, and family autonomy. This paper analyzes various international models - Anglo-Saxon, Communitarian, Continental, Emergent, Mediterranean, Scandinavian, and Transitional - highlighting their distinctive characteristics, strengths, and limitations. It further explores how these models reflect specific economic structures, financing mechanisms, and social priorities, ranging from highly institutionalized and tax-funded frameworks in Scandinavian and Continental countries to decentralized, community-based approaches in developing and emerging economies. While Scandinavian and Continental models stand out for their universality and strong state involvement, they require substantial financial commitments. In contrast, the Anglo-Saxon, Communitarian, and Mediterranean models offer much more flexibility, but they often struggle with the equity and the consistent access. The Emergent and Transitional models, including Moldova’s, highlight the importance of reform, innovation, and international cooperation in building resilient, inclusive child support systems. The study concludes by emphasizing the necessity for balanced support models combining efficiency, accessibility, and sustainability to ensure optimal outcomes for vulnerable children. The work was developed within the framework of Subprogram 030101 „Strengthening the resilience, competitiveness, and sustainability of the economy of the Republic of Moldova in the context of the accession process to the European Union”, institutional funding.
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    Circular economy in the European Union: a PRISMA-based systematic review and meta-synthesis
    (2025) Vovk, Viktoriia; Tașdöken, Öznur; Bölük, Gülden; Stratan, Alexandru; Polcyn, Jan
    The most significant impact of the industrial production process is the environmental damage caused by the waste generated during production. European Union countries aim to reduce environmental harm by reintegrating waste, production inputs, and materials generated during production and consumption activities back into the production process. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the studies related to the circular economy in the context of European Union countries within the circular economy literature. For this evaluation, the authors used the studies from the circular economy literature available in the SCOPUS database for the period between 2004 and 2024. The analysis of the obtained dataset was conducted using the PRISMA (2015) approach. According to the findings, although many studies exist, most focus on implementing circular economy regulations and laws. Upon reviewing these publications, many were found unrelated to the circular economy. Furthermore, there is a significant gap in studies employing econometric models to analyze the circular economy, and no research has been found that performs a literature review using meta-synthesis methods specifically on the circular economy within the context of EU countries. These findings aim to fill this gap and guide academics and policymakers researching the topic.
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    Forecasting Moldova’s monthly exports using autoregressive models with seasonal dummies
    (2025) Toaca, Zionovia; Staver, Liliana; Stratan, Alexandru; Lopotenco, Viorica; Cociug, Victoria;
    Exports significantly influence Moldova’s economic stability and regional integration, particularly due to its agriculture-driven economy characterized by pronounced seasonality. This study evaluates the forecasting accuracy of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, enhanced with seasonal dummy variables, for predicting Moldova’s monthly exports. It systematically compares traditional ARIMA methods, ARIMA with seasonal dummies, and modern techniques such as Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural networks. Forecast performance is assessed using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Theil’s U-statistic, and the Cost-Value Ratio (CVR). Results demonstrate that combining forecasts from multiple ARIMA models significantly improves predictive accuracy, with weighted combinations based on MAPE reducing forecast errors by approximately 10%. The findings highlight the effectiveness and adaptability of combined forecasting models, emphasizing their value for small, open economies like Moldova’s that are susceptible to external shocks and seasonal fluctuations. This research provides robust empirical evidence supporting the adoption of combined econometric forecasting methodologies in economic policymaking and strategic planning.
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    Dimensiunea bibliometrică a contribuțiilor științifice ale cercetătorului Tatiana Gutium
    (2025) Bordian, Elena; Lupu, Elena; Coslet, Ecaterina
    This study is dedicated to Ms. Tatiana Gutium, Doctor of economics sciences, Associate Professor on the occasion of her 60th birthday (13.07.1965). The article presents a bibliometric approach applied to measuring scientific productivity, taking as a case study the academic activity of Ms. T. Gutium. The analysis focuses on her contributions in key areas of economic research: global economy, sustainable economic development, public policies, digital economy, competitiveness management, social protection, food security, etc. The scientific and didactic activity, carried out over three decades, reflects a significant impact on the way in which research supports the state in developing economic and social policies, but also on the training of young specialists. The bibliometric analysis of the works published by Dr. Tatiana Gutium between 1998 and 2025 targeted criteria such as the total volume of scientific production, the typology of publications, the topics addressed, geographical dispersion, institutional affiliation and the Hirsch index of citations, being complemented by the examination of the network of co-authors and its contribution to the theoretical and methodological development of contemporary economic science. Acest studiu este dedicat Dnei Tatiana Gutium, doctor în economie, conferențiar universitar cu ocazia aniversării a 60 de ani de la naștere (13.07.1965). În articol este prezentată o abordare bibliometrică, aplicată pentru măsurarea productivității științifice, având ca studiu de caz activitatea academică a Dnei T. Gutium. Analiza se axează pe contribuțiile sale în domenii-cheie ale cercetării economice: economia globală, dezvoltarea economică durabilă, politici publice, economie digitală, managementul competitivității, protecția socială, securitatea alimentară ș.a. Activitatea științifică și didactică, realizată pe parcursul a trei decenii, reflectă un impact semnificativ asupra modului în care cercetarea sprijină statul în elaborarea politicilor economice și sociale, dar și asupra formării tinerilor specialiști. Analiza bibliometrică a lucrărilor publicate de Dna dr. Tatiana Gutium în perioada 1998 - 2025 a vizat criterii precum volumul total al producției științifice, tipologia publicațiilor, tematica abordată, dispersia geografică, afilierea instituțională precum și indicele Hirsch al citărilor, fiind completată de examinarea rețelei de coautori și a aportului său la dezvoltarea teoretică și metodologică a științei economice contemporane.