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Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://rses.ince.md/handle/123456789/1827
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Item The resilience of the russian economy under the current geopolitical outlook(INCE, ASEM, 2024) Dragoi, Andreea-EmanuelaDespite the widespread consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the unprecedented international sanctions imposed by the EU, USA, and other Western economies, the Russian Federation's economy has demonstrated surprising resilience. This research examines the key drivers that have sustained the Russian economy and how the current economic climate has influenced its international cooperation. We utilize a mixed methodology that combines a literature review with quantitative analyses of international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). Our findings reveal that while the sanctions initially had a severe impact, increased energy exports have since boosted economic growth, and legal initiatives have helped mitigate the decline in FDI.Item Romanian economy - the champion of the EU economic convergence(INCE, 2024) Radulescu, AndreiRomanian economy presented a strong degree of resilience in the context of the outbreak of the exogenous shocks at the world level (coronavirus pandemic and the geo-political tensions) and their consequences (including the high level of the inflationary pressures). According to Eurostat database, Romania was one of the few countries with a continuity of the investment flows, including during the pandemic year 2020, despite the unprecedented high level of the uncertainty. At the same time, Romania was the champion of the European economic convergence process over the past decades, as reflected by the dynamics of the GDP/capita at purchasing power standards. This paper employs the Eurostat database and AMECO database and standard economic analysis tools (including the econometric filter Hodrick-Prescott) in order to assess the European economic convergence process of the Romanian economy over the past decades (from 1995 to 2023). According to the results of this analysis Romanian successful economic convergence process was determined by the huge inflows of capital flows with positive impact for the dynamics of the total productivity factor. Furthermore, the results show that at present the YoY pace of the potential output is at the highest level since 2008.Item Planificarea auditului performanței, impactul etapei date de audit asupra calității gestiunii resurselor financiare publice şi a patrimoniului public. Aspecte teoretice și abordări practice(INCE, 2022) Dolghi, CristinaThe efficient management of public money ensures national security at the state level, as well the achievement of social and economic purposes to a high level. The problematic in relation of the fact that public money must be spent in conditions of economy, proficiency and effectiveness is in-depth studied in the performance audit, exceeding traditional practices to check only financial and accounting documents and the legitimacy of economic operations. Within this study, the author has ploughed quantitative and qualitative, inductive and deductive methods, along with methods of analysis and synthesis. The comparative methodology was mostly applied in research that served a good sustenance in identifying both the similarities, as well as the existing dissimilarities between national regulations, internal acts of the Court of Accounts and the Framework of Professional Pronouncements INTOSAI (International Organization of Supreme Audit Institutions), fulfilled according to the Decision of the Court of Accounts no. 2 of 24 January 2020. Performance auditing as a new audit technique contributes to improving the management of public institutions and reducing the risks of public resources being used inefficiently. However, achieving these goals as priority tasks of the performance audit can be foreseen at the audit planning stage by an exhaustive and responsible study by the auditors to select those entities / programs or activities that offer the Court of Accounts the greatest opportunity to obtain an impact, as the available resources are limited. All the more auditors from the beginning to the end must ensure the basic qualities of a good performance audit.Item Impactul pandemiei Covid-19 asupra calității vieții populației din Republica Moldova(INCE, 2022) Timofti, Elena; Sarban, CristinaEconomia anului 2020 a fost puternic marcată de pandemia de COVID-19, care în martie a ajuns și în Republica Moldova. Pentru a stopa răspândirea infecției, guvernul de la Chișinău, la fel ca și guvernele din celelalte state ale lumii, a venit cu o serie de restricții de circulație și activități antreprenoriale, fapt care a avut efecte destul de negative pentru întreaga populație. Scopul cercetărilor este de a analiza impactul acestei pandemii asupra populației, punând în evidență necesitățile vitale, dar și felul în care aceasta a răspuns noilor provocări și schimbări în sfera socială și economică. Cercetările au fost realizate în baza datelor furnizate de Biroul Național de Statistică prin metode de analiză, sinteză, tabelară și grafică. În baza rezultatelor obținute s-a constatat că impactul crizei cauzate de acest virus reprezintă o amenințare pentru economia națională și pentru nivelul de trai al cetățenilor. În timpul acestei crize sanitare și acestor situații precare, este necesar să se protejeze nu numai sectoarele critice ale economiei, dar și locurile de muncă și angajații. The economy of 2020 was strongly marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, which in March also reached the Republic of Moldova. In order to stop the spread of the infection, the government of Chisinau, as well as the governments in other countries of the world, came up with a series of traffic restrictions and entrepreneurial activities, which had quite negative effects for the entire population. The purpose of the research is to analyze the impact of this pandemic on the population, highlighting the vital needs, but also how it responded to new challenges and changes in the social and economic sphere. The research was based on data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics through methods of analysis, synthesis, tabulation and graphics. Based on the results obtained, it was found that the effects of the crisis caused by this virus pose a threat to the national economy and to the standard of living of the citizens. During this health crisis and these precarious situations, it is necessary to protect not only the critical sectors of the economy, but also jobs and workers.Item Forecast of the energy consumption of Turkiye commerce sector: m-estimation model application(INCE, 2022) Çankaya, Mehmet Niyazi; Özen, ErcanNet electricity consumption use continue to be significant issues. There are various forms of energy use and production. This work uses robust and form of Mestimation by using the grid-search algorithm. Thus, since we use form of Huber Mestimation, the prediction performance can be increased; because, the data is tried to be modelled by using the different values of tuning parameter determined by the gridsearch which can be used to carry out the optimization proving the M-estimates of the parameters of regression model. The data sets which are year and the net electricity consumption are modelled by regression model in order to predict and forecast how much electricity consumption will be necessary for the commercial purpose firm used the electricity at the highest amount. The statistical inference for the regression model and its estimators of parameters in the model is also provided. Further, the illustrative results used for the grid-search and the analytical expression of regression model are given. Due to the fact that polynomial regression showing an increment in the polynomial trend can model the dependent variable well, the net electrical consumption in commerce at Turkiye increases and the bandwidths for the forecasting in the year 2021 and 2022 are given to conduct a planning in energy sector.Item Alternative methods to measuring the Romanian economy’s business cycle(INCE, 2022) Radu, Stefan-ConstantinIn the following paper we will present a series of mathematical models that have the scope of approximating the business cycle of the Romanian economy for the period between 1995 and 2022 by using quarterly data of the Gross Domestic Product. The main findings of the paper suggest the use of three different methods for approximating the business cycle, with very interesting and varied results. The accuracy of the approximation of the proposed methods is compared to the traditional method of using the Hodrick-Prescott filter. The originality of the paper lays in applying different methods of calculating the business cycle and comparing their effectiveness for the case of the Romanian economy. In this case we observe that when comparing the methods for the Romanian economy, the alternatives to the Hodrick-Prescott filter are viable and useful.Item Global risks & the Moldovan economy(INCE, 2015) Viehe, Karl WilliamI want to first thank the Ministry of Economics and its National Institute of Economic Research for the opportunity to speak at this conference. I have done so several times in the past and it is always a great pleasure to be with the wonderful people attending the conference.Item The relationship between the average monthly net wage and permanent emigrants in Romania.(2023) Savu, Mihaela; Teselios, DeliaThe paper aims to present the relationship between the average monthly net wage and permanent emigrants at the level of our country for a period of 12 years. At the level of Romania, in the last 30 years, the trend of emigration has been observed, especially for obtaining higher incomes than those that could be earned in the country. In (the year) 2021, the top three countries chosen by permanent emigrants were Spain, Germany and Italy. They keep their place in the top three countries chosen for emigration in the last five years of the analyzed period. We consider that the presentation of the two indicators will allow us to observe the relationship between them, using one of the non-parametric methods for establishing the link between statistical variables, namely the Kendall coefficient. The analysis of the two indicators is carried out with the help of the rank method, a statistical method, which involves establishing the ranks (position) for the values of the two indicators for the entire analyzed period. The values recorded by the average monthly net salary and permanent emigrants are official data, provided by the National Institute of Statistics. The result obtained after calculating the Kendall coefficient demonstrates that there is a link between these indicators, it is direct and of medium intensity. These information allows us to conclude that the level of salary earnings in Romania is one of the decisive factors in making the decision to emigrate.Item Meditare despre folosirea terenurilor destinate agriculturii în Republica Moldova(INCE, 2023) Certan, IonThe decision of the Parliament of the Republic of Moldova of July 25, 1990 qualified "...the transition to the market economy as a model of economy...". The development of the economy essentially depends on agriculture, which for all countries was, is and will be the support of human existence and, therefore, constitutes the strongest balancing factor in harmonizing the development of the state. It is no coincidence that one of the first normative acts adopted on February 15, 1991 by the Parliament of the Republic of Moldova was the Concept of agrarian reform and the socio-economic development of the village. The development of agriculture is influenced by the available resources, primarily by the natural potential which, as P. Bran states [1,20], participates with the "force of its laws and its "goodnesses", substance (s), energy (e) and information (i), goods in a natural state, ``manufactured'' by the physical, chemical, and biological movement of matter''. It is no coincidence that the Concept mentions that "the main link of the agrarian reform is the reform of land relations", aimed at "the demonopolization of state ownership of land and, as a result, the recognition of land as a commodity, the affirmation in practice of different types of ownership in agriculture" In this article, the authors present a modest study on the evolution of agricultural lands and come up with some proposals aimed at using them more rationally.Item Oficiul național de audit al Republicii Populare Chineze(IEFS, 2012) Dobre, CorneliaThe financial crisis which debuted in July 2007 has affected most economies of the world, being cancelled even the most positive growth predictions. In this carousel of economic decrease and austerity measures is observed that the Republic of China’ s economy has been less affected, occupying from 2010 the second place after the United States in the world economy. Thus, the Republic of China is a factor of interregional economic stability and even international. The typology of economic growth must be based on a dynamic structure and independent of verification such as the China National Audit Office (CNAO) which is part of the executive branch, having the mission to supervise through audit missions the execution of the public budget. The theme researched is distinguished by originality, because a field as important as it is the external public audit is little known through the specialized works. Methodology of the research is to evaluate the resources in this field, using the national and foreign specialized literature. Also were accessed web pages of Supreme Audit Institutions in order to deepen the knowledge spectrum. The work is focused on institutional development, the role, experience and traditions exercised in public external audit field, as well as on the relationship with Parliament, including measures taken pursuant to the recovery audit reports.