Strengthening demographic resilience through return migration and diaspora in Moldova

Abstract

Return migration and diaspora engagement are increasingly recognized as potential levers for strengthening demographic and socioeconomic resilience in Moldova, a country marked by persistent emigration, population decline, and aging. This article examines how the scale and characteristics of Moldovan return migration affect demographic decline and how national policies attempt to capitalize on the potential of return migrants and the diaspora. Using disaggregated data on international migrant flows by citizenship, we provide a novel analytical perspective on the magnitude and characteristics of return migration. The findings reveal that over the past decade, Moldovan citizens accounted for 93.4% of the total negative migration balance, underscoring that demographic imbalances are primarily driven by the outflow of the native population, while the contribution of foreign nationals to net migration remains limited. Nevertheless, specific groups of foreign residents-particularly Romanian and Russian citizens-exerted a compensatory demographic effect, partially offsetting net losses in certain years. In practice, in certain years, population decline caused by Moldovan emigration was mitigated by positive net inflows from Romania and Russia. These results highlight both the demographic vulnerability associated with continued emigration and the potential role of selective immigration in alleviating population loss.