Влияние динамики ожидаемой продолжительности жизни на пенсионную политику

Abstract

The article analyzes the policy methods used to reflect the life expectancy dynamics in the pension system design. Increasing life expectancy is more often seen as a challenge for pension systems, as it entails a longer flow of benefits. At the same time, there is a strong argument that the increase in overall life expectancy is accompanied by an increase in healthy life expectancy. Both approaches involve taking into account the impact of increasing life expectancy on the age line between the labour and retirement stages of the life cycle. In practice, two policy methods are used to take into account the impact of life expectancy dynamics on the retirement age. In both cases, life expectancy at old age is used, not at birth. The first method involves introduce the expected length of the pay-out period into the pension formula. The second method is based on the forecast of the life expectancy as a benchmark for proportionally raising the retirement age. Both methods cannot work fully automatically and do not relieve policymakers of difficult decisions. The task is greatly complicated if life expectancy indicators do not have a stable upward trend. The COVID pandemic and rising geopolitical tensions could force a rethink of the current pension reform argument. The sources of the study are international databases (World Population Prospects 2022, Mutual Information System on Social Protection (MISSOC), etc.) and national pension legislation in the countries of Europe and Central Asia.