Economie socială
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Item Perspectivele dezvoltării relațiilor comerciale dintre Moldova și Azerbaidjan(Artifex, 2023) Gutium, Tatiana; Gojaeva, ElmiraAs independent states, the Republics of Moldova and Azerbaijan have commercial relations that evolve unevenly. The research object is the competitiveness of Moldovan goods in the Republic of Azerbaijan market and the competitiveness of goods produced in Azerbaijan in the Republic of Moldova market. The purpose of the research is to identify those goods whose export is convenient for both countries. Prospects for the development of commercial relations between the republics were also established. In the structure of both export and import of the Republic of Moldova, the largest share belongs to the products of the chemical industry. However, empirical research has shown that it is convenient for Moldova to export pharmaceutical products and for the Republic of Azerbaijan to export fertilizers.Item Vulnerabilitatea economico-socială la schimbările climatice a Republicii Moldova(Artifex, 2023) Gutium, TatianaClimate change affects agriculture, biodiversity, water resources, and population health. The impact of climate change results from the interaction between climate hazards, exposure, and vulnerability of society and the economy. Among these three factors, vulnerability can be determined by sensitivity and adaptability and can be applied to the development of state programs and strategies to overcome the negative impact of climate change. The research object in this study is economic-social vulnerability to climate change. The main goal is to estimate the economic-social vulnerability to climate change of the Republic of Moldova in the division of districts. The results of the research showed that the highest degree of economic-social vulnerability to climate change was recorded by Hîncești, Fălești, Rezina, Basarabeasca, Leova, and the lowest level by Anenii Noi and Ialoveni.Item Vulnerabilitatea economico-socială la schimbările climatice a Republicii Moldova(2023) Gutium, TatianaClimate change affects agriculture, biodiversity, water resources, and population health. The impact of climate change results from the interaction between climate hazards, exposure, and vulnerability of society and the economy. Among these three factors, vulnerability can be determined by sensitivity and adaptability and can be applied to the development of state programs and strategies to overcome the negative impact of climate change. The research object in this study is economic-social vulnerability to climate change. The main goal is to estimate the economic-social vulnerability to climate change of the Republic of Moldova in the division of districts. The results of the research showed that the highest degree of economic-social vulnerability to climate change was recorded by Hîncești, Fălești, Rezina, Basarabeasca, Leova, and the lowest level by Anenii Noi and Ialoveni.Item Influența tinerilor asupra dezvoltării IMM-urilor în Republica Moldova(2024) Gutium, TatianaIn Moldova, the majority of enterprises are SMEs. Small business development needs to be increased to ensure the stable development of the national economy. The Republic belongs to the category of countries with a high rate of population aging. Young people are emigrating from Moldova, so it is necessary to prove that the government should pay more attention to youth problems. It is also required to prove that youth play a significant role in the development of SMEs. The research object is the entrepreneurship sector, and especially the SME. This study aims to verify the hypothesis that the number of young people directly impacts the development of SMEs in Moldova. Correlation and regression analysis were used to verify the hypothesis and construct regression equations.Item Эконометрическая модель прогнозирования развития предпринимательства в Республике Молдова(МЦНТИ, 2023) Gutium, TatianaАктуальность исследований в области предпринимательства бесспорна, особенно для Республики Молдова. Почти все действующие предприятия это малые и средние. В предыдущие два года только один процент предприятий — это крупные предприятия. При принятии решений как на микроуровне (предприятия), так и на макроуровне (страны) необходимы прогнозы. Предметом данного исследования являются методы прогноза развития предпринимательства, в том числе малого и среднего. Цель исследования — это разработка новой модели прогнозирования основных показателей, отражающих деятельность предпринимательства в Республике Молдова, а одна из задач — это анализ методов прогноза с целью выявления преимуществ и недостатков этих методов. При разработке модели и при расчёте среднесрочных прогнозов использовалась программа EViews. Согласно полученным результатам, в последующие три года (2024-2026 гг.) процент роста выручки от реализации товаров варьируется в интервале 6,7-7,9% ежегодно, а финансовые результаты до налогообложения — 6,8-8,0%.Item Accessibility and quality of healthcare service in the Republic of Moldova(„Independenţa Economică”, 2023) Gutium, TatianaQuality is one of the main characteristics of the assessment of health services. In line with the Sustainable Development Goals, the World Health Organization calls for countries to increase access to quality essential health services, medicines, and vaccines for the entire population, regardless of income level. The degree of implementation of this task in the Republic of Moldova is the research objective of this paper. The purpose of research is to assess the accessibility and quality of healthcare services. The analysis showed that there is a relationship between the level of income of the population and the degree of satisfaction of the population with their health. In this study, the author performed a comparative analysis of access to health services in the Republic of Moldova by area. Likewise, the author analysed the interdependence between population income and access to quality health services. A financial resource is an important condition in ensuring access to certain medical services, so the benefit of treatment or medical observation depends on the level of population well-being.Item Competitiveness of Moldova’s Agri-food Trade: Challenges and Perspectives(2023) Duca, Gheorghe; Stratan, Alexandru; Gutium, TatianaOne of the conditions for increasing the competitiveness of the national economy of Moldova is the promotion of the export of competitive goods. Considering that the Republic of Moldova is mainly relying on its agri-food sector, and it was granted the status of a candidate country for accession to the European Union, the object of research is the Competitiveness of Moldova’s Agrifood Trade. The principal purpose of this study is to determine the directions for modernizing the structure of the agri-food complex to increase its competitiveness in the context of deepening the integration processes in the European space. The authors assessed the trends and prospects for the trade of food products and agricultural raw materials between Moldova and European Union countries. In this aim statistical and econometric methods were applied. The results of the study showed that a promising direction in the development of economic relations between Moldova and the European Union was the formation of clusters with a high potential for competitiveness. For a better integration into the European food products market with minimal loss, there is a strong need in establishing direct economic links and implementation of joint investment projects.Item Climate Change Impacts, Risks and Vulnerabilities in the Republic of Moldova: Observed Trends and Future Projections(Bons Offices, 2023) Taranu, Lilia; Trescilo, Lidia; Bugaeva, Tatiana; Deveatii, Dumitru; Taranu, Ioan Sabin; Gutium, Tatiana; Bacean, Ion; Cosman, Sergiu; Beschieru, Eugeniu; Prosii, Erii; Robu, SergiuThis study presents a largely indicator-based assessment of observed and projected climate change, impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities to national economy, agriculture, energy, forestry, human health, and society, based on a wide range of observations and different GCMs simulations. It identifies the regions and Administrative-Territorial Units (ATUs) that are experiencing particularly severe climate change impacts, risks and vulnerabilities. The principal sources of uncertainty for the climate change indicators and modelling results are discussed and, where appropriate, reflected in the assessments. The climate change indicators included in this report cover observed and future time periods, and information is presented at different levels of aggregation: national, regional (Northern, Central and Southern AEZs), ATUs and districts. This study also compiles information from a wide variety of recent data and information sources. It builds on, among others, on the recommendations of the IPCC 6 Assessment Report (AR6), and a substantial amount of new information that became available due to this report has also been included. th Because climate change is a broad-based and multi-sectoral issue, the Government, business and civil society will need to be engaged in the discussion on what the RoM does to address it. Our aim is to inform those involved in this discussion, and illustrate the linkages between climate change and potential impacts, risks and vulnerabilities including the possible economic damage, the most vulnerable regions and ATUs. The Government, local authorities, urban and rural population, business and civil society are now concerned and interested in the climate change issue. This effort is in response to the country’s policies towards the challenges of climate change, expressed in key strategies such as the Climate Change Adaptation Strategy until 2020 and the Low-Emission Development Strategy of the Republic of Moldova until 2030, and their corresponding Action Plans. The issue of climate change was expressed in these acts, mostly with a focus on sustainable development. Both policies are now under revision and updating process. The implementation of the updated NDC (2020) is foreseen through the Low Emission Development Programme until 2030 and the Action Plan for its implementation (LEDP 2030); its adoption is planned for the second half of 2023 year. The main scope of the LEDP 2030 is to mobilize and enable private and public actors to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from economic activities, in line with the targets set out in the updated NDC. Regarding GHG emission reductions, the LEDP 2030 sets quantifiable targets for energy, industry, buildings transport, agriculture, LULUCF and waste sectors. With support from the UNDP, the Republic of Moldova has developed the National Climate Change Adaptation Programme until 2030 and the Action Plan for its implementation (NCCAP) . The NAP process is key to achieve the adaptation objectives outlined in the previous National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy until 2020 (NCCAS 2020) approved in 2014, as well as to mainstream climate considerations into policies and budgeting processes. The proposed adaptation measures for six priority sectors (agriculture, health, forestry, energy, water, and transport) as well as the identification of the key indicators to monitor the process of adaptation to climate change are being discussed . The NCCAP 2030 is also planned to be approved by Government in the second half of 2023 year. 6 The research and analysis in this study indicates that, while climate change is likely to pose serious threats to development in the RoM, it also has the potential to bring opportunities. The “climate for change” that currently exists in the RoM will provide the country with the motivation it needs to rise to the challenge. There are a range of adaptation options, such as disaster risk management, early warning systems, climate services and risk spreading and sharing that have broad applicability across sectors and provide greater benefits to other adaptation options when combined. For example, climate services that are inclusive of different users and providers can improve agricultural practices, inform better water use and efficiency, and enable resilient infrastructure planning. Enhancing knowledge on risks, impacts, and their consequences, and available adaptation options promotes societal and policy responses. Building capacity and removing some barriers to accessing finance is fundamental to accelerate adaptation, especially for vulnerable groups, regions and sectors. Climate resilient development is already challenging at current global warming levels. The prospects for climate resilient development will be further limited if global warming levels exceeds 1.5°C and not be possible in some regions and sub-regions if the global warming level exceeds 2°C. Any further delay in concerted anticipatory actions on adaptation and mitigation will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all.Item Social exclusion and poverty in the European Union and candidate countries(PRO Universitaria, 2023) Gutium, Tatiana; Gojaeva, Elmira; Huseynova, ShahlaSocial exclusion and poverty are the research subject, and the main goal is to develop recommendations and solutions for social inclusion. Without assessing the risk of poverty and social exclusion in the member states of the European Union and the candidate countries and identifying the causes of poverty and social exclusion, it is impossible to develop solutions to reduce poverty, ensure social inclusion, and strengthen the targeted social policy. The analysis of the components of the AROPE indicator showed that the highest risk is monetary poverty, and the poverty rate directly depends on the level of economic development. The Granger causality test showed that in two candidate countries (Moldova and Montenegro) inequality leads to poverty with the probability of 5% and 10%. At the end of the study, recommendations are presented to combat poverty and ensure social inclusion.Item Small and medium-sized enterprises in the Republic of Moldova: trends, challenges and forecasts(Artifex, 2022) Gutium, TatianaForecasting is relevant for improving Small and Medium-sized Enterprises management. It is due to the great uncertainty of the events arising from the operation of a market economy, a geopolitical and energy crisis of recent years. Forecasting allows SMEs to reduce the degree of uncertainty of the future and makes it possible to develop a strategy for the company's behavior. It permits SMEs to make effective management decisions. Forecasting makes it possible to evaluate the economic and financial prospects for the development of the enterprise. One of the main problems is the lack of financial resources that hinder entrepreneurship development. In conditions of economic instability, the main task of small business development is not so much obtaining guaranteed profits as increasing business survival in an unstable environment. One of the indicators that registered a downward trend is the number of employees employed at SMEs, which is decreasing every year. To forecast the base SME indicators for 2022-2025, the econometric model developed based on statistical data for 2009-2021 was adjusted.