Climate Change Impacts, Risks and Vulnerabilities in the Republic of Moldova: Observed Trends and Future Projections
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Date
2023
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Abstract
This study presents a largely indicator-based assessment of observed and projected climate change,
impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities to national economy, agriculture, energy, forestry, human health,
and society, based on a wide range of observations and different GCMs simulations. It identifies
the regions and Administrative-Territorial Units (ATUs) that are experiencing particularly severe
climate change impacts, risks and vulnerabilities. The principal sources of uncertainty for the
climate change indicators and modelling results are discussed and, where appropriate, reflected in
the assessments.
The climate change indicators included in this report cover observed and future time periods, and
information is presented at different levels of aggregation: national, regional (Northern, Central
and Southern AEZs), ATUs and districts. This study also compiles information from a wide variety
of recent data and information sources. It builds on, among others, on the recommendations of the
IPCC 6
Assessment Report (AR6), and a substantial amount of new information that became
available due to this report has also been included.
th
Because climate change is a broad-based and multi-sectoral issue, the Government, business and
civil society will need to be engaged in the discussion on what the RoM does to address it. Our aim
is to inform those involved in this discussion, and illustrate the linkages between climate change
and potential impacts, risks and vulnerabilities including the possible economic damage, the most
vulnerable regions and ATUs.
The Government, local authorities, urban and rural population, business and civil society are now
concerned and interested in the climate change issue. This effort is in response to the country’s
policies towards the challenges of climate change, expressed in key strategies such as the Climate
Change Adaptation Strategy until 2020 and the Low-Emission Development Strategy of the
Republic of Moldova until 2030, and their corresponding Action Plans. The issue of climate change
was expressed in these acts, mostly with a focus on sustainable development. Both policies are now
under revision and updating process.
The implementation of the updated NDC (2020) is foreseen through the Low Emission Development
Programme until 2030 and the Action Plan for its implementation (LEDP 2030); its adoption is
planned for the second half of 2023 year. The main scope of the LEDP 2030 is to mobilize and
enable private and public actors to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from economic activities, in
line with the targets set out in the updated NDC. Regarding GHG emission reductions, the LEDP
2030 sets quantifiable targets for energy, industry, buildings transport, agriculture, LULUCF and
waste sectors.
With support from the UNDP, the Republic of Moldova has developed the National Climate Change
Adaptation Programme until 2030 and the Action Plan for its implementation (NCCAP)
. The
NAP process is key to achieve the adaptation objectives outlined in the previous National Climate
Change Adaptation Strategy until 2020 (NCCAS 2020) approved in 2014, as well as to mainstream
climate considerations into policies and budgeting processes. The proposed adaptation measures for six priority sectors (agriculture, health, forestry, energy,
water, and transport) as well as the identification of the key indicators to monitor the process of
adaptation to climate change are being discussed
. The NCCAP 2030 is also planned to be approved
by Government in the second half of 2023 year.
6
The research and analysis in this study indicates that, while climate change is likely to pose serious
threats to development in the RoM, it also has the potential to bring opportunities. The “climate for
change” that currently exists in the RoM will provide the country with the motivation it needs to
rise to the challenge.
There are a range of adaptation options, such as disaster risk management, early warning systems,
climate services and risk spreading and sharing that have broad applicability across sectors and
provide greater benefits to other adaptation options when combined. For example, climate services
that are inclusive of different users and providers can improve agricultural practices, inform better
water use and efficiency, and enable resilient infrastructure planning.
Enhancing knowledge on risks, impacts, and their consequences, and available adaptation options
promotes societal and policy responses. Building capacity and removing some barriers to accessing
finance is fundamental to accelerate adaptation, especially for vulnerable groups, regions and sectors.
Climate resilient development is already challenging at current global warming levels. The prospects
for climate resilient development will be further limited if global warming levels exceeds 1.5°C and
not be possible in some regions and sub-regions if the global warming level exceeds 2°C. Any further
delay in concerted anticipatory actions on adaptation and mitigation will miss a brief and rapidly
closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all.
Description
Referinte bibliogr. la sfarsitul capitolului.
Keywords
clima, modificari climstice, impact, risc, vulnerabilitate, prognoze, Republic of Moldova, Republica Moldova, climate, climate change, impacts, risks, vulnerabilities, mediu inconjurator, schimbari climaterice, economie nationala, agricultura, energie, silvicultura, sanatatii umane
Citation
TARANU, Lilia, TRESCILO, Lidia, BUGAEVA, Tatiana, DEVEATII, Dumitru, TARANU, Ioan Sabin, GUTIUM, Tatiana, BACEAN, Ion, COȘMAN, Sergiu, BESCHIERU, Eugeniu, PROSII, Erii, ROBU, Sergiu. Climate Change Impacts, Risks and Vulnerabilities in the Republic of Moldova: Observed Trends and Future Projections. Chișinau, 2023. 367 p. ISBN 978-9975-81-141-5.