The population of Moldova in 2040: economic and social implications of depopulation and demographic ageing

Abstract

The article presents the results of the demographic projection for Moldova from 2023 to 2040, highlighting critical trends in fertility, life expectancy, and migration. The projection outlines three potential scenarios-high, medium, and low-each offering different outcomes based on varying levels of improvement in healthcare, social policies, and migration patterns. Across all scenarios, the country is expected to experience a significant population decline due to low fertility rates, negative natural increase, and sustained emigration, particularly among the younger, working-age population. The article emphasizes the accelerating demographic aging process, which will place increasing pressure on the shrinking workforce to support a growing elderly population. The scenarios also explore the potential for mitigating these challenges through improved health services, increased fertility rates, and reduced emigration. However, even in the most optimistic scenario, the demographic decline remains a pressing issue. The results underscore the need for comprehensive, forward-thinking policies aimed at addressing the root causes of demographic decline. Proactive measures in healthcare, family support, and economic development are crucial to reducing the impact of these demographic trends and ensuring sustainable growth for Moldova's future.