Evaluarea modelelor economice utilizate la elaborarea scenariilor de prognoză în cazul economiei româneşti

Abstract

The paper is devoted to comment the limits and usefulness of the main models developed for analyzing and forecasting the Romanian economy. Special attention is paid to the programming financial models, as example the model used by the World Bank – the so-called RMSM model, the MEGA-SAM model developed by the author, or the general equilibrium model applied by Tanguy de Biolley. Other important models used for Romania are also presented, both econometric (Dobrescu model for the Romanian economy, HERMIN model) and specific (determination of the potential GDP and long-term economic growth, especially developed by the experts of the National Commission for Forecasting).