Сrop production efficiency in Ukraine under climate change conditions

Abstract

Crop production in Ukraine is a significant component of agriculture and the national economy. It holds a prominent position in world markets and impacts global food security. Plant products contribute substantially to the country's export potential, influencing the balance of payments. The impact of climate change on global agriculture is a proven fact, and despite increasing countermeasures, its effects continue to intensify. Crop production is particularly vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions. While the severity of climate change in Ukraine is less than in some other regions the country’s role in ensuring global food security places it under significant scrutiny regarding potential changes in crop production. The aim of the article is to assess potential changes in the efficiency of crop production, specifically the dynamics of yield for major agricultural crops, in response to longterm changes in agro-climatic conditions, and their impact on the production potential. Research methods include general scientific and specialized approaches, both qualitative and quantitative, theoretical (descriptive analysis) and empirical (review of official documentation and legislative acts), comparative analysis, analytical alignment of time series by the least squares method and others statistical methods. In Ukraine’s agro-climatic zones, the impact of climatic factors on productivity varies significantly. In the Steppe zone, which is increasingly becoming a zone of risky agriculture, climatic factors have had the greatest impact. In contrast, the Polissia zone has seen significant productivity increases primarily due to agrotechnical factors. Therefore, to maintain the efficiency of crop production under changing climatic conditions, it is essential to adapt the components of crop-growing agrotechnologies. This underscores the need to implement national programs of observing and studying climate change, and to leverage the best domestic practices in land use and agricultural technologies aimed at adapting to climate change and mitigating its negative consequences.