Conceptual framework for social resilience of the Ukrainian (post)war economy

Abstract

The Russian military invasion in February 2022 led to extremely negative demographic, macroeconomic and social consequences for Ukraine, including local humanitarian disasters. As of September 2023, according to UNCHR data, 6.2 million refugees from Ukraine were recorded globally, and more than 5.1 million Ukrainians became internally displaced persons. The urgent need to overcome these consequences, as well as for the effective Ukraine’s post-war recovery, determines the actuality of in-depth research on the social resilience of its national economy. The purpose of our research is to form a conceptual framework for the social resilience of the Ukrainian economy in the war and post-war periods. Achieving this goal involves the use of research methods of analysis, comparative studies, processing of statistical and econometric data, as well as sociological surveys. The results of the study showed that the social resilience of Ukraine's national economy is formed in the contour of social reproduction and should be based on the blocks of (i) employment and labour potential; (ii) solvent consumer demand; (iii) social security, including health and education systems. Other research results, along with the post-war recovery aspect, social resilience has an important instrumental value for Ukraine in terms of European integration and state governance. In 2020, the European Commission identified the resilience concept as "a new compass for EU policy". Adaptive borrowing of the relevant modern approaches of the European Union is an important task for Ukraine, which in June 2022 acquired the official status of a Candidate Country for EU membership. The article presents the results of the research carried out within the Project “Formation of the foundations of nationally rooted stability and security of the economic development of Ukraine in the conditions of the hybrid "peace–war" system” (state registration No. 0123U100965).