Демографическое развитие Приднестровья

Abstract

The left-bank territories controlled by the authorities of the unrecognized Transnistrian Moldovan Republic, are outside the scope of the statistical services of the Republic of Moldova. There is a problem of underestimating the demographic data of this part of the country, which can be solved using the data of the Transnistrian statistical service. The Transnistrian authorities keep an independent current registration of the population of the region, and also twice in 2004 and in 2015 conducted a population census, regardless of the Republic of Moldova. The information obtained by local statistical services allows one to see trends in the dynamics of the population size, its structures, and can also become the basis for assessing demographic changes in the future. Analysis of the dynamics of Transnistria’s total population indicates its steady decline, due not only to high mortality and emigration, but also to the deformation of the age composition. In recent decades, the migration outflow of the population has become a more significant factor in depopulation processes than natural population decline. Among the negative consequences of depopulation, the most pronounced are: the aging of the population and the growth of the demographic burden (the ratio of pensioners to the working population), as well as the depopulation of rural areas. Assessing the contribution of migration and natural losses to the overall population decline is complicated by the narrow statistical base of the region. For this reason, it is difficult to carry out modeling of demographic processes and their impact on the economy of Transnistria.