Return migration and the role of diaspora in strengthening demographic resilience: the case of the Republic of Moldova

Abstract

This paper examines return migration and the contribution of the diaspora to strengthening demographic resilience in the Republic of Moldova, against the backdrop of a continued population decline caused by intense outward migration. The theoretical framework integrates the transnational migration theory, human and social capital theories, and the concept of demographic resilience. Methodologically, the study combines, for the first time, the analysis of data on return migration with a public policy review conducted in 2024, based on content analysis of around 80 institutional reports and documents. The findings show that 93.4% of the negative migration balance in 2014-2023 was due to the emigration of Moldovan citizens, while only 6.6% resulted from the migration of foreign citizens. In certain years, population losses were partly offset by net inflows of Romanian and Russian citizens. Although Moldova has developed a comprehensive policy framework on return migration and diaspora engagement, the resources brought by these groups remain insufficiently harnessed to counteract the impact of mass emigration. Initiatives aimed at supporting youth economic empowerment and programmes targeting the professional diaspora remain limited in scope and do not systematically include those who have returned permanently. The most significant gap is the absence of a centralised mechanism for coordinating migration policies, compounded by weak inter-institutional communication."