Comparative insights of fertility transition in Romania and Moldova

Abstract

This study examines the fertility transition in Romania and the Republic of Moldova, two Eastern European countries with shared cultural roots but divergent post-1990 trajectories. Using the postponement–recuperation framework (Frejka et al.), it examines the timing and intensity of childbearing, assessing the extent of fertility postponement and recuperation across completed cohorts using vital statistics (1971–2023). Both countries experienced a sharp fertility decline in the late 1980s-1990s, marking the onset of the transition. Romania reached a TFR of 1.22 (2001), and Moldova reached 1.44 (2002). Romania progressed more rapidly, showing a stronger recovery in births at older ages, while Moldova remains at an intermediate stage. Despite persistent adherence to the two-child norm, childbearing has shifted to later ages, first births around 30, second by 35. Cohort fertility stabilized at 1.8-1.9 children per woman, indicating partial recuperation. In Moldova, the 1985 cohort recovered 59% of postponed first births and 71% of second births by age 44, whereas Romania showed higher recuperation, particularly for higher-order births. Overall, both countries exemplify distinct variants of the post-socialist fertility transition, converging toward delayed parenthood but differing in pace and outcomes, underscoring the need for policies supporting the realization of fertility intentions.