From early to late fertility: comparative evidence from Romania and Moldova

Abstract

This study examines fertility dynamics in Romania and the Republic of Moldova, two Eastern European countries with common cultural roots but divergent political, social, and economic trajectories after the 1990s. Using vital statistics for 19712023, the analysis finds that the total fertility rate (TFR) in 2023 was 1.5 in Romania and 1.6 in Moldova, marginally above the levels recorded in many other European countries. Applying the postponement–recuperation model proposed by T. Frejka, we investigate shifts in both the tempo and quantum of fertility. Romania experienced an earlier onset of fertility postponement, around 1994, with the mean age at first birth rising from 22.6 years in the early 1990s to 27.2 years in 2023. By contrast, Moldova underwent a later and slower transition, beginning around 1997, with the mean age at first birth increasing only to 24.4 years by 2023. The postponement index rose steadily in both countries, surpassing 0.70 in Romania but stabilizing around 0.65 in Moldova. These results emphasize the divergent pace of adaptation to late fertility regimes and highlight the influence of social, economic, and cultural conditions on reproductive behavior.