Analysis of fertility trends in Moldova over the past thirty years

Abstract

The continuous decrease in population numbers, driven partly by the decline in fertility rates in Moldova, necessitates ongoing monitoring of this area. The study aims to explore the evolution of fertility in Moldova in the last three decades. The research is based on the National Bureau of Statistics’ vital data, including the females aged 15-49, the number of live births, and the distribution of births by mother's age and birth order from 1991 to 2023. Classic demographic methods were employed to analyse fertility, including total fertility rate, age-specific fertility rates, the mean age of mothers at first birth, and the proportion of live births by birth order and residence. The results regarding fertility in the Republic of Moldova in the analysed period highlight a continuous decline in the number of births and a postponement of the age at which women have their first child. The most marked decline in fertility is among women aged 15-24, whose contribution to overall births dropped from 55% in 1991 to an expected 26% in 2023. This shift underscores a clear trend of delayed childbearing, as fertility rates have risen among women aged 25-34, pointing to a societal shift toward postponing childbirth. Despite improving living standards, Moldova faces a total fertility rate of 1.6 children per woman, below the generational replacement threshold, contributing to a long-term demographic decline.