Cercetări demografice
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Item Inclusion of youth not in employment, education or training (neet youth)(2017) Crismaru, Mariana; Gagauz, Olga; Buciuceanu-Vrabie, MarianaThe access to education and employment for young people is a priority and, at the same time, one of the main concern of Moldova’s authorities, given that there are still certain difficulties in integrating young people into the education system and labour market, which causes a low valorisation of youth potential. Traditional indicators that describe the labour force and its participation in the labour market (activity and inactivity rate, employment, unemployment) do not provide complete and adequate data for assessing the situation of young people on the labour market. To better capture the situation of youth, especially their inactivity and vulnerability on the labour market, both international organizations and local institutional actors and researchers are increasingly using the concept of NEET youth. Although there are several definitions of the NEET youth concept, the most commonly used is the definition implemented by Eurostat – young people aged 15–24 (extended to age groups 15–29, 15–19, 20–24 and 25–29 years), who are not integrated into any form of employment, education or training.Item Conturile naționale de transfer pentru Republica Moldova: profilul de vârstă al consumului și venitului din muncă(INCE, 2022) Gagauz, Olga; Prohnitchi, ValeriuThe NTA methodology is a modern system for estimating intergenerational balances within the System of National Accounts (SNA), which makes it possible to assess the contribution of individual age groups to the production and distribution of national income, as well as to explore the characteristics of income and consumption. NTA for Moldova, built for 2019, reflects the features of the socioeconomic context, the level of labor income, opportunities for savings, and the specifics of the consumption of the population. The big size of the economic life cycle deficit, defined as the difference between labor income and consumption, is determined by the low rate of employment and high costs of life in Moldova. The share of private transfers in LCD covering is much higher than that of public transfers. The private sector has a substantial role in intergenerational distribution, especially for the young generation, the older persons also being donors of private transfers. Education and health care are provided predominantly by the public sector. The public pension expenditure represented about one-third of the total volume of public transfers. People in the 30–48 age span produce the lifecycle surplus. They generate the largest share of labor income and contribute to both private and public transfers. The article was elaborated within the State Program Project (2020-2023) 20.80009.0807.21 „Migration, demographic changes, and situation stabilisation policies”. The implementation of the NTS methodology in Moldova was carried out with the financial support of the Population Fund (UNFPA).Item Fertility transition from traditional to modern model in Moldova: exploration in base on the “Generation and gender survey”(INCE, 2022) Grigoras, Ecaterina; Gagauz, OlgaIn Moldova, like in other countries of Eastern Europe, after the 1990s,fertility transition fromthe traditional model to the modern one is occurring. Astable fertility decline was observed up to 2004, while the total fertility rate settled at 1.7-1.8 births per woman in the following years. Although the indicatoris higher compared to other states,the factors determining this level and the likelyfuture trends are essentialquestionsto be asked. We assumesome of the sociodemographic characteristics of women, the socioeconomic and cultural context impact the reproductive behavior and determine whether to keep the traditional model or switch to the modern one. The research isconducted to highlight the differences in women's reproductive behavior and the sociodemographic characteristics that impact the number of children born.The research is based on the" Generations and Gender Survey"conducted in Moldova in 2020. A detailed profile of women's reproductive behaviour was presented on the base of four identified clusters, which characterize the fertility transition from the traditional to the modern model. Findings reveal that the traditional model of reproductive behavior with a large family or, at most, with two childrenis prevalent. Medium and high education, late age at marriage and urban residence of women have a negativeeffect on the number of children ever born. The study quantifies the heterogeneity of reproductive behavior and has important implications forthe scientific perception of current trends and prospective fertility dynamicsin Moldova.Item Situația demografică a Republicii Moldova: starea actuală, factori determinanți și perspective pentru deceniile următoare(INCE, 2018) Gagauz, OlgaÎn acest articol este prezentată analiza situației demografice în Republica Moldova și a tendințelor pentru următoarele decenii. În baza datelor statisticii curente și recensămintelor populației se examinează schimbările principale în dinamica fertilității, mortalității și migrației, precum și impactul acestora asupra reproducerii populației. Se constată că în pofida unei tendințe ferme de reducere a fertilității, descendența finală a femeilor constituie în jur de doi copii. Se înregistrează difirențieri semnificative în profil teritorial, cel mai scăzut nivel al fertilității fiind înregistrat în mun.Chișinău. În domeniul mortalității se menține o situație nefavorabilă. Dacă la femei speranța de viață a depășit cea mai înaltă valoare a acestui indicator înregistrat în anul 1989 (72,3 ani), ajungând la 73,7 ani în anul 2014, la bărbați maximumul din anul 1989 (65,6 ani) încă nu a fost depășit (64,9 ani). Migrația internațională continuă să afecteze dinamica populației și structura pe vârste a acesteia. Conform prognozelor demografice, se estimează pierderi enorme ale efectivului populației Republicii Moldova în deceniile viitoare. În condițiile actuale urmează de a revizui abordarea cu privire la situația demografică prin accentuarea necesității de a ameliora indicatorii calitativi ai populației, mai ales, starea de sănătate și nivelul de educație.Item Depopularea Republicii Moldova în contextul declinului populației din Europa Centrala și de Est(Foxtrot, 2021) Gagauz, OlgaIn recent decades, the population of the Republic of Moldova has been steadily declining, and this trend will persist in the coming decades. Compared to other countries in Central and Eastern Europe, the Republic of Moldova is most affected by depopulation. The present study expands evidence on depopulation in the Republic of Moldova based on the demographic projection developed by Centre for Demographic Research for 2019-2040. The results show that in the coming decades, the demographic decline would continue at a fast pace, increasing from 1.6% to 2.3% annually. The population number may decrease with 34.5% by 2040. The population decline caused by external migration will be 776.9 thousand. The population age structure will change significantly. The emigration of younth has an important negative effect and leads to a decrease in the number of working age youth. Meanwhile the return of 50+ year old migrants from abroad leads to an increase in the proportion of older people in the population as a whole. It was concluded that the effects of depopulation are much more unfavorable than those associated with population aging. Being determined by mass migration depopulation is associated with the loss of human capital, the negative impact on quality of life, social cohesion and socio-economic development.Item Speranţa de viaţă sănătoasă a populaţiei din Republica Moldova(INCE, 2015) Gagauz, Olga; Avram, CristinaÎn lucrare sunt prezentate rezultatele cercetării cu privire la speranța de viaţă sănătoasă a populaţiei din Republica Moldova. Calculele s-au efectuat după metoda lui Sullivan D. în baza datelor Cercetării Bugetelor Gospodăriilor Casnice (BNS), perioada 2006-2013. Speranţa de viață şi speranţa de viaţă sănătoasă sunt într-o creştere constantă, dar lentă, pentru ambele sexe şi toate grupele de vârstă. Proporția timpului petrecut în stare de sănătate foarte bună/bună şi satisfăcătoare, de asemenea, este în creştere, inclusiv sănătatea vârstnicilor atestă o ameliorare. Totuşi diferenţele dintre sexe persistă, astfel, femeile trăiesc mai mult comparativ cu bărbaţii, dar într-o stare de sănătate mai rea.Item Population situation analysis in the Republic of Moldova(2016) Gagauz, Olga; Stratan, Alexandru; Buciuceanu-Vrabie, Mariana; Ciubotaru, Victoria; Cheianu-Andrei, Diana; Penina, OlgaThe Republic of Moldova, like other countries from Central and Eastern Europe, undergoes a demographic transition – an evolutionary process characterised by the shift to an ageing society due to the lower fertility rate and gradual increase of life expectancy at birth, which overlapped with the recent economic and political changes. The population ageing escalates on the background of a population decline that began in 1999, and according to the demographic projections, the population decrease will continue during the following decades.Item Costurile economice ale mortalității premature în Republica Moldova("Tipografia Centrală”, 2019) Gagauz, Olga; Onofrei, Nicoleta; Pahomii, IrinaMenținerea unui nivel înalt al mortalității prezintă una din cauzele importante ale declinului demografic în Republica Moldova, provocând pierderea capitalului uman, prejudicii economice semnificative și afectând diferite sfere ale vieții umane. Reducerea mortalității premature reprezintă o rezervă importantă pentru remedierea situației. Scopul cercetării: estimarea indicatorului Ani Potențiali de Viață Pierduți din cauza mortalității premature, analiza comparativă a structurii pierderilor înregistrate pe grupuri de vârstă și cauze de deces pentru ambele sexe și estimarea mărimii echivalentului economic al acestora. Studiul este bazat pe teoria capitalului uman, care vizează venitul potențial nerealizat din cauza părăsirii timpurii a pieței muncii determinat de decesul prematur. Cele mai semnificative pierderi economice determinate de mortalitatea prematură a femeilor sunt condiționate de tumori, iar a bărbaților de mortalitatea prin cauze externe. Cea mai mare parte a pierderilor economice determinate de mortalitatea prematură este remarcată pentru populația adultă (40-54 de ani pentru bărbați și 40-49 de ani pentru femei). Analiza pe cauze de deces a evidențiat importanța majoră a unor cauze ce pot fi evitate. Pentru monitorizarea eficientă a mortalității premature este necesară introducerea și definirea clară a noțiunii de mortalitate prematură în politicile și strategiile de bază, dar și sectoriale, și introducerea indicatorilor specifici.Item Migration from Moldova: Trajectories and Implications for the Country of Origin(Springer, Cham, 2020) Tabac, Tatiana; Gagauz, OlgaThe present chapter examines international migration in the Republic of Moldova. The authors highlight a few stages in the evolution of migration: the period of ethnic minority migration, the period of increases of temporary labour migration and the last period of intensification in migration flows, diversification of the countries of emigration, and formation and growth of Moldovan stocks in the host countries. It is demonstrated that the national economy is highly dependent on remittances, which are predominantly used for consumption and have not been transformed into investments or production in the real economy. The mass emigration has led to a degradation of the demographic potential of the country, and has also increased the speed of population decline and demographic ageing. Some social effects are also mentioned, such as the development of “migration culture”, which increases and facilitates migration intentions, the negative impact on family stability and the phenomenon of children left without parental care. The impact of migration on political institutions, electoral behaviour, and civic activism of diaspora members is also noted. Also, the authors show the main directions of the migration policies promoted by the Government of Moldova.Item Молдова на пути второго демографического перехода: структурные изменения рождаемости(2013) Gagauz, OlgaAfter the 1990s, fertility started declining in Moldova. The adjusted period total fertility rate remains at the level of 1.5 children per woman over the recent years. The youngest cohort born in 1970 year, presently almost completed its reproductive function, has a relatively high fertility rate, about two children per woman. In the mid-1990s, the Second Demographic Transition in Moldova began. Nevertheless, the Moldovan fertility still shows its traditional features like relatively high age-specific fertility rate among females aged 15-19 years of old, pre-marital conception and marriages enforced by unplanned pregnancy. However, postponement of childbearing to later ages, an increase of mean protogenetic interval, particularly among women with higher education, are manifested.