Prognoze pe termen mediu în baza modelului macroeconometric al IEFS
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Date
2011
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Complexul Editorial al IEFS
Abstract
În Republica Moldova lipseşte experienţa prognozelor economice. Este însă absolut necesar, pentru ştiinţa economică din ţara noastră, de a veni cu un model macroeconometric care să poată prognoza şi modela diferite scenarii ale activităţii economice. În acest articol,vom face o scurtă trecere în revistă a prognozelor effectuate în Republica Moldova şi a creării macromodelelor econometrice. Vom revizui prognoza pe termen scurt şi pe termen mediu a indicatorilor macroeconomici din Republica Moldova. Previziunile sunt realizate pe baza macromodelului economiei Republicii Moldova elaborat de Institutul de Economie, Finanţe şi Statistică al Academiei de Ştiinţe a Moldovei. Este un model pe termen mediu, bazat pefactorii cererii agregate, al PIB-ului Republicii Moldova. Modelul determină, în principal, fluxurile reale ale economiei naţionale.
In Republic of Moldova there is a lack of forecasting and economic experience. It absolutely necessary for economic science in Moldova to come up with a macroeconometric model that could forecast and model different scenarios of economic activity. This paper is an incipient and brief overview of the forecasting in Moldova and macro econometric model building. The paper revises the short-term and medium term forecasting of macroeconomic indicators of Republic of Moldova. The forecasts are made based on the macromodel of the Moldavian economy, elaborated at Institute of Economy, Finance and Statistics. The model is a small medium-term demand-driven model of the Moldovan GDP. The model mainly determines the real flows of the Moldovan economy.
In Republic of Moldova there is a lack of forecasting and economic experience. It absolutely necessary for economic science in Moldova to come up with a macroeconometric model that could forecast and model different scenarios of economic activity. This paper is an incipient and brief overview of the forecasting in Moldova and macro econometric model building. The paper revises the short-term and medium term forecasting of macroeconomic indicators of Republic of Moldova. The forecasts are made based on the macromodel of the Moldavian economy, elaborated at Institute of Economy, Finance and Statistics. The model is a small medium-term demand-driven model of the Moldovan GDP. The model mainly determines the real flows of the Moldovan economy.
Description
Abstract în lb. rom., engl. Bibliogr.: p. 127(10 titl.). Text paral.: lb. rom., engl. Recenzent: Rodica PERCIUN, dr., IEFS.
Keywords
prognoze economice, model macroeconometric, Republica Moldova, IEFS, economic forecasts, macroeconometric model, Republic of Moldova
Citation
CHISTRUGA, Marcel. Prognoze pe termen mediu în baza modelului macroeconometric al IEFS = Medium-term forecasts on themacroeconometric model of IEFS. In: Economie şi Sociologie. 2011, nr. 1, pp. 123-127. ISSN 1857-4130.