The impact of macroeconomic factors on non-performing loans in the Republic of Moldova

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to estimate the impact of several macroeconomic variables on non-performing loans (NPLs) in the banking sector of the Republic of Moldova recently affected by global crisis. Using econometric multivariate linear regression analysis, we conclude that banking NPLs are affected nor only by distinctive features of the banking sector and the policy choices of each bank but also by macroeconomic environment: NPLs increase when GDP, exports, remittances decrease and when unemployment increases, however, our assumption about the relation between NPLs and private indebtedness has not been validated. We observed a substantial increase in the credit risk during the recent financial crisis period. Keywords: macroeconomic factors, banking system, nonperforming loans.