Browsing by Author "Penina, Olga"

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    Care este numărul real al populației Republicii Moldova?
    (INCE, 2015) Penina, Olga
    Se examinează calitatea datelor statistice oficiale cu privire la numărul populației Republicii Moldova şi corespunderea definițiilor naționale în domeniul migrației internaționale la standardele Uniunii Europene. Se evidențiază impactul supraestimării numărului populației asupra indicatorilor demografici, a prognozelor demografice şi elaborării politicilor sectoriale. Se propun recomandări ce țin de ameliorarea calității datelor statistice cu privire la numărul şi structura populației.
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    Changes in mortality inequalities between rural and urban populations in the Republic of Moldova after independence
    (INCE, 2022) Penina, Olga
    In the Republic of Moldova, life expectancy started growing moderately since 2005 after decades of deterioration. Little is known about changes in mortality differences between rural and urban populations. The research aimed to analyse rural-urban disparities in mortality by sex and cause of death in the Republic of Moldova since independence. Material and methods. Age-standardized death rates were computed by sex and cause for different periods since 1991. Absolute and relative inequalities in mortality were computed with 95% confidence intervals. Results. A positive rural-urban gradient was identified for major cause-of-death groups, except for neoplasms and infectious diseases. The socioeconomic crisis of the 1990s was accompanied by a reduction in mortality disparities as a result of considerable growth in cardiovascular mortality among urban men and women. In rural areas, the crisis led to an increase in mortality, mainly from respiratory system diseases and digestive system diseases. Recent progress in population health observed nationally after 2005 has been accompanied by a widening rural-urban gap due to faster improvements in urban areas. Conclusions. Even though all-cause mortality was consistently lower for the urban population than for the rural population, the former was more sensitive to the socioeconomic crisis of the 1990s and the COVID-19 pandemic than the latter. To reduce rural-urban inequalities in mortality, preventive measures need to target key risk factors for diseases of the circulatory, digestive and respiratory systems and external causes in rural areas. The study was carried out in the framework of Project 21.00208.8007.02/PD “Socio-demographic and regional mortality disparities in the Republic of Moldova”
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    Correcting the official life tables for the Republic of Moldova for 1959-2014
    (INCE, 2015) Penina, Olga
    Articolul "Corectarea tabelelor oficiale ale mortalității pentru anii 1959-2014" prezintă unele rezultate ale proiectului cu privire la analiza de lungă durată a mortalității pe cauze de deces în Republica Moldova efectuat în colaborare cu cercetătorii francezi de la Institutul Național de Studii Demografice din Franța ȋDr. France Meslé și Prof. Jacques VallinȌ. Lucrarea descrie problemele cu privire la calitatea înregistrării deceselor infantile și a deceselor pentru vârstele avansate, care prezenta anumite deficiențe pentru țara până la mijlocul anilor 70 ai secolului trecut. Datele oficiale cu privire la structura și numărul populației după anii ’90 ai secolului trecut nu sunt fiabile din cauza sub-înregistrării considerabile ale fluxurilor migraționale. Ca rezultat, tabelele oficiale ale mortalității pentru Moldova nu sunt credibile atât pentru perioada sovietică, cât și pentru cea după proclamarea independenței. Sunt prezentate estimările alternative ale valorilor speranței de viață la naștere după corectările datelor cu privire la mortalitate și numărul și structura populației.
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    Îmbătrânirea forţei de muncă şi rezervele de consolidare a efectivului braţelor de muncă
    (Institutul de Cercetări Juridice şi Politice al Academiei de Ştiinţe a Moldovei, 2014) Piscenco, Marina; Gagauz, Olga; Penina, Olga
    In the article, the changes in working age population structure are analysed in the context of the population ageing process based on the retrospective and projected data. The losses of the work force caused by high mortality level at adult ages are determined, the possible sources for reducing the negative effect of the population ageing process on the working age population size are considered.
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    Impactul crizelor economice asupra proceselor demografice
    (INCE, 2016) Gagauz, Olga; Penina, Olga; Tabac, Tatiana
    Se examinează impactul crizelor economice din perioada anilor 1990-2014 asupra principalelor procese demografice: fertilitatea, mortalitatea și migrația. În acest context, se constată că greutățile economice și incertitudinile pe piața forței de muncă duc la reducerea intențiilor cu privire la nașterea copiilor, ceea ce s-a reflectat în reducerea semnificativă a ratei totale de fertilitate și a ratelor specifice de fertilitate pentru vârstele tinere. Mortalitatea pentru toate vârstele și cauzele de deces au prezentat o tendință generală de creștere, rata standardizată de mortalitate majorându-se în anii 1990-2014 cu 44% la bărbați și 30% la femei. Mortalitatea înaltă determină decalajul semnificativ între Republica Moldova și țările UE în speranța de viață la naștere. Pentru Republica Moldova acest indicator constituie 65,0 ani pentru bărbați și 73,4 ani pentru femei, fiind, cu 7,4 și, respectiv, 6,7 ani mai scăzut decât în UE. Situația socioeconomică nestabilă sporește numărul persoanelor implicate în migrația internațională, care, în timp, a cuprins tot mai multe persoane din grupele tinere de vârstă. În ultimii ani emigrația oscilează în limitele de 45-50 mii. Printre cele mai necesare politici se evidențiază: crearea condițiilor favorabile pentru nașterea și educarea copiilor reducerea mortalității și migrației.
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    Mediul rural sub incidenţa schimbărilor demografice
    (Tipografia AŞM, 2013) Paladi, Gheorghe; Gagauz, Olga; Buciuceanu-Vrabie, Mariana; Penina, Olga
    Predominantly agrarian-character of the national economy of the Republic of Moldova defi nes a high proportion of rural population (58%). Deep socioeconomic changes in the recent decades have had a signifi cant impact on all aspects of rural populations. A complex socioeconomic situation, the absence of labour caused massive population emigration from rural areas, which had a negative impact on all the demographic processes, including nuptiality, natality, mortality etc. Considerable changes in population structure by main age groups (children, adults, elderly) have been accompanied by depopulation process in rural areas. A sharp decline in natality led to reduction in children population both in absolute and relative terms and a rise in proportion of the elderly. For many decades, the natural increase of Moldova’s population was provided mainly by the rural population, that’s why the loss of this demographic potential can have serious consequences for our country.
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    Mortalitatea excesivă în Republica Moldova
    (Complexul Editorial, INCE, 2014) Penina, Olga
    În prezentul articol sunt analizate principalele cauze de deces şi grupele de vârstă care sunt responsabile pentru formarea mortalităţii excesive în Republica Moldova. Tabelele mortalităţii pe cauze de deces în funcţie de sex au fost construite pentru Republica Moldova şi Franţa, care a fost aleasă în calitate de standard. Mortalitatea excesivă în grupele de vârstă până la 70 de ani se estimează la un nivel de 30-35 decese la bărbaţi şi 20-25 decese la femei la o sută de decese pentru toate cauzele şi grupele de vârstă. La bărbaţi, ponderea majoră a deceselor excesive se referă la bolile aparatului circulator, bolile aparatului digestiv şi cauze violente în grupele de vârstă peste 40 de ani. Reducerea mortalităţii provocate de bolile aparatului circulator şi a celui digestiv în grupele de vârstă peste 50 de ani sunt direcţiile prioritare ale politicilor ce vizează lichidarea decalajului dintre Moldova şi ţările de Vest după nivelul speranţei de viaţă la naştere.
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    Population situation analysis in the Republic of Moldova
    (2016) Gagauz, Olga; Stratan, Alexandru; Buciuceanu-Vrabie, Mariana; Ciubotaru, Victoria; Cheianu-Andrei, Diana; Penina, Olga
    The Republic of Moldova, like other countries from Central and Eastern Europe, undergoes a demographic transition – an evolutionary process characterised by the shift to an ageing society due to the lower fertility rate and gradual increase of life expectancy at birth, which overlapped with the recent economic and political changes. The population ageing escalates on the background of a population decline that began in 1999, and according to the demographic projections, the population decrease will continue during the following decades.
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    Producing reliable mortality estimates in the context of distorted population statistics: the case of Moldova
    (2015) Penina, Olga; Jdanov, Dmitri; Grigoriev, Pavel
    Background and AimDespite having a functioning population register, the official demographic indicators in Moldova are seriously biased. The problem arises primarily because the registration of deaths and births covers only the events that occur within the country (the de facto population), whereas the population at risk includes Moldovan citizens who live abroad(the de jure population). Because the country has high levels of emigration, there are substantial differences between the de factoand thede jure population numbers. Thus, thenominator-denominator bias must be taken into account in the population statistics. To obtain plausible demographic rates, appropriate corrections of population size have to be made. Our aim is to estimate the size of the de facto Moldovan population, and to produce reliable mortality estimates for the longest period possible. Data and Methods We rely on official data obtained from various sources. These include mortality data, census counts, and annual population estimates collected from archives or obtained directly from the Moldovan National Bureau of Statistics. Using alternative administrative data sources, we first correct the size of the Moldovan population. We then generate adjusted population estimates. Finally, on the basis of the adjusted population estimates, we produce life tables. All of the calculations are performed using the methodology and programming tools developed within the Human Mortality Database(HMD) Project. Results Our corrected population estimates are 18 percent lower than the official figures. The adjusted estimates of life expectancy at birth in 2014 are 64.94 years for males and 73.74 years for females. These figures are, respectively, 2.58 years and 1.65 years lower than the official estimates. Our estimates of the size of the population are consistent with unpublished 2014 population census data. Complete life tables for the period 1970–2014, as well as some other HMD statistics, are provided as supplementary material.ConclusionsWe show that even when there is a serious distortion of population statistics, it is possible to obtain plausible mortality estimates. This issue is highly relevant not just for Moldova, but for other European countries that have also been experiencing problems with the incorrect registration of migration. To improve the quality of their population estimates, countries will increasingly have to consult alternative administrative data sources.
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    Profilul sociodemografic al Republicii Moldova la 20 de ani după adoptarea Programului de Acţiune de la Cairo
    (S. n., 2014) Paladi, Gheorghe; Bodrug-Lungu, Valentina; Buciuceanu-Vrabie, Mariana; Cheianu-Andrei, Diana; Chivaciuc, Ana; Esanu, Anatol; Esanu, Taisia; Penina, Olga; Poalelungi, Olga; Rojco, Anatolii; Savelieva, Galina; Tatar, Marina; Tautu, Ludmila; Tomceac, Ana; Zaharov, Svetlana; Gagauz, Olga
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    Reconstruction of the continuity of cause-specific mortality trends for the Republic of Moldova
    (Complexul Editorial al INCE, 2015) Penina, Olga
    The paper presents the stages of reconstruction of the continuity of cause-of-death time series for Moldova based on a special method developed by French demographers Jacques Vallin and France Mesle (Institut national d’etudes demographiques, INED). The method eliminates the disruptions in death time series provoked by periodic changes in the classification and was successfully used in a number of industrialized countries. For the Republic of Moldova we reconstructed death time series by sex and age according to the short list of the 10th Revision of the International Classification of diseases and Causes of Death for the 1965-2012 period.
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    Socio-demographic determinants of mortality in the Republic of Moldova
    (INCE, 2023) Penina, Olga
    The study examines the influence of socio-demographic determinants, particularly marital status and educational attainment, on disparities in overall and cause-specific mortality in Moldova. Material and methods: Based on the depersonalised databases of death records, which include detailed ICD-10 cause-of-death data categorised by marital status and educational attainment, we analysed mortality patterns for the population aged 30 years and over during two periods around the 2004 and 2014 censuses. Absolute and relative differences in standardised death rates with 95% CIs were calculated. The reference groups were the married population and the population with higher education. Results: Significant differences in all-cause and cause-specific mortality according to marital status and educational level were found for both sexes. Particularly vulnerable groups included divorced men, never-married women and men and women with primary education or less. Marriage and higher education had a protective effect on mortality for both sexes. In 2013-2014, the difference in life expectancy at age 30 between divorced men or never-married women and their married counterparts was more than 12 years. The difference between those with higher education and those with primary education or less was more than ten years for men and nine years for women. Mortality disparities associated with marital status and education were most pronounced among young adults and decreased with age. Conclusions: Targeted preventive measures aimed at reducing mortality among vulnerable subgroups are essential, focusing on risk factors associated with infectious and respiratory diseases, liver cirrhosis and external causes of death.
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    Смертность взрослого населения в Республике Молдова
    (2013) Penina, Olga
    Based on the 1965-2012 cause-of-death time series reconstructed for Moldova in terms of the 10 revision of the International Classification of Causes of Death, the analysis of mortality trends among the adults is presented. The special attention is paid to diseases of the circulatory system, violent deaths and diseases of the digestive system. These groups of causes of death turned out the most sensitive to the social and economic events of the 1980s and 1990s (the 1985 anti-alcohol campaign and the social and economic crisis of the 1990s) and represent the main sources of excessive adult mortality in Moldova compared to the developed countries with low mortality level.
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    Трудовые ресурсы населения Республики Молдова в условиях демографического старения
    (2013) Piscenco, Marina; Penina, Olga
    The problem of the quality of Moldovan population data for the period of Independence is arisen. Based on the census data and the proper annual population estimates, we analysed the dynamics of working age population and gave the projection till 2035 based on different hypothesis assuming the changes in pension age.
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    Эпидемиологический переход в постсоветских странах.
    (INCE, 2014) Penina, Olga
    The paper analyses the dynamics of life expectancy and cause-specific mortality trends in Moldova compared to other former USSR republics and western countries over the last almost half a century in the light of the modern concept of the epidemiological transition (sanitary transition). Moldova failed to achieve the progress in life expectancy at birth over the last forty-five years and lagged far behind the industrialized countries. This stagnation is explained by two factors. On the other hand, significant improvements in infant and child mortality were achieved, on the other hand – an enormous rise in adult mortality, especially among working ages. Adult mortality was especially sensitive to the social circumstances of the 1980s and 1990s occurred in the former USSR countries (Gorbachev anti-alcohol campaign and social crisis in the 1990s). Disregarding these fluctuations, adult male mortality recommenced its growth in 2000s. Cardiovascular diseases, liver cirrhosis and external causes of death are the three causes of death driving the Moldovan life expectancy.