Cercetări financiare și monetare
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Item Analysis and management of macroeconomic risks of the Republic of Moldova("Constantin Brancoveanu" University of Pitesti, 2019) Petrova, Tatiana; Gribincea, CorinaMacroeconomic risks have a complex effect on the level of business activity, liquidity and financial stability of the economy of the Republic of Moldova. Risks and vulnerabilities can develop endogenously within the financial system, but can also occur in the real economy and be transferred to the financial system. The systems approach determines the reform of the macroeconomic risk management system as part of the strategic planning process for the development of the banking sector, the financial system and the country as a whole. The methodology used to calculate indicators of the macroeconomic risks were based on IMF methodology.Authors conclude that Moldova’s is lagging in terms of per capita income and weak social development emphasizes the need for faster and more comprehensive growth. However, the existence of an export-oriented economy development model, along with a weak financial system, makes the real sector vulnerable to external shocks and does not allow for a sustainable economic growth.Item Показатели устойчивого развития экономики Республики Молдова на основе достижения финансовой стабильности(Complexul Editorial al INCE, 2018) Petrova, TatianaЦелью исследования является определение Показателей устойчивого развития национальной экономики Республики Молдова на основе финансовой стабильности. Проведено обобщение теоретических и эмпирических выводов относительно внешних и внутренних аспектов устойчивого развития стран с переходной экономикой. Приоритетная экономическая составляющая условий устойчивого развития должна предусматривать развитие реального сектора экономики Республики Молдова. Отсутствие прогрессивных структурных сдвигов в экономике связано как со слабой заинтересованностью банков в кредитовании бизнеса, так и с низким уровнем кредитоспособности реального сектора экономики Республики Молдова. Рост инфляции отрывает динамику процента от динамики рентабельности реального сектора. Ускорение финансового развития не сопровождается ростом реального сектора, снижает положительное влияние финансового развития на экономический рост. Определение и мониторинг показателей устойчивого развития на основе достижения финансовой стабильности поможет приоритетным отраслям (сектору сельского хозяйства и производства продуктов питания) Республики Молдовы в вопросах модернизации и интеграции в международные рынки.Item Макроэкономические риски финансовой стабильности Республики Молдова(INCE, 2016) Petrova, TatianaRiscurile macroeconomice in Republica Moldova se menţin la un nivel inalt. Condiţiile externe combinate cu factorii interni inteţesc instabilitatea financiară a Republicii Moldova. In Republica Moldova, reforma sistemului de gestiune a riscurilor macroeconomice presupune utilizarea unor metode moderne de evaluare a riscului, analiza riscului și punerea in aplicare a sistemului de avertizare timpurie a crizelor (SAT). Metodele cele mai răspandite de evaluare a riscului stabilității financiare la nivel național sunt ratingurile şi indicii. S-au calculat indicatori de vulnerabilitate relativi ai țărilor cu economii in tranziție; şi indicatorii SAT semnalează cel mai frecvent și veridic posibilitatea de apariție a unei situații de criză. S-au determinat obiectivele de gestiune a riscurilor macroeconomice, ca parte a unui mecanism care asigură stabilitatea financiară in contextul rolului de management și de supraveghere al statului.Item Взаимодействие сбережений и инвестиций в экономике Республики Молдова(Complexul Editorial al INCE, 2017) Petrova, TatianaThe equilibrium between savings and investment can ensure the stability of the financial market. The scope of this work paper the analysis of the dynamics of the "savings-investment" balance in the Republic of Moldova and its impact on economic growth. The role and possibilities of attracting foreign investments into fixed assets are shown. The indicator of investment growth with a low level of gross savings is a signal or precursor of a decline in economic growth. According to the National Bank of Moldova (BNM), the civilized export of capital from the Republic of Moldova represents only a small part in the process of export of capital, while the bulk of the exported capital falls to illegal outflows, having a negative impact on various spheres of the economy of the Republic of Moldova. The leading role in the mechanism of savings’ transformation into investment should belong to National Bank of Moldova.Item Определение внешних и внутренних угроз финансовой безопасности Республики Молдова(IEFS, 2013) Petrova, Tatiana; Perciun, RodicaIn present article there are examined the criteria of classification of financial security threats. Also, there are given characteristics of the causes and consequences of the threats. The author made conclusions about the possible and probable events that preceded the banking crisis, also there were identified external and internal threats of the financial security of the Republic of Moldova and the macroeconomic indicators, as precursors of financial instability. The author considers that foreign economic risks and unstable economic growth characterize the high probability of appearance of a crisis situation in the Republic of Moldova.Item Assessment of illegal capital flows in the Republic of Moldova(INCE, 2017) Petrova, Tatiana; Iordachi, Victoria; Clichici, DorinaThis paper analyses the existent methodologies used in international practice to estimate illegal capital outflows. Also, authors carried out an assessment of the illegal capital outflows in the Republic of Moldova on the basis of two models: the general method based on the balance of payments and the World Bank’s "residual" model. The paper reflects the exceptional situation of the financial system of the Republic of Moldova and trends in evolution of capital flows. The analysis of illegal flows should be part of the monitoring system of the country’s financial stability, which will allow identifying in time negative trends that threaten Moldova's financial security. The main research methods were systemic analysis and logic synthesis; data analysis and interpretation; statistical methods, etc. The main conclusions obtained within the research of this topic are: for more reliable estimates for analytical purposes, it is necessary to develop an adequate methodological base that would help to measure and analyze shadow cross-border flows; for the assessment of the financial security of the Republic of Moldova, as a transition economy, it is important to monitor, analyze and forecast a broader list of financial indicators, as well as their critical values.