Analize și prognoze economice

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Author: search.filters.author.Ganciucov, ValentinaSubject: search.filters.subject.Республика Молдова

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    Forecasting production of domestic goods and main macroeconomic indicators
    (INCE, 2018) Ganciucov, Valentina; Gutium, Tatiana; Ceban, Alexandru
    Managing both the modern state and the enterprises is impossible without forecasting and elaborating several development scenarios that would take into account the available resources and reflect the most likely results. The forecast has become a part of daily life and a fundamental tool for assessing development prospects. Therefore, the task of improving the economic-mathematical model for the development of forecasts is relevant, especially in modern conditions, when the national economy is subject to many factors, both external and internal. The main goal of the research is to forecast the production of domestic goods and the main macroeconomic indicators using the economic-mathematical model adapted by authors to the new conditions for the development of the Moldovan economy, considering that the share of the non-observed economy in 2016 is less than in the previous year, but remains significant. The main methods used in this study: the "input-output" method, econometric methods of research and forecasting, regression analysis, the method of analytical calculation, the method of mathematical modelling of economic processes. Using the adapted model and taking into account the processes established in the national economy, forecast interbranch balances for 2018 were developed in the division of goods, integrated into five branches of national economy, and forecasts of the main macroeconomic indicators for the Republic of Moldova were developed
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    Evolution of the Republic of Moldova's Non-Observed Economy
    (AGEPI, 2017) Ganciucov, Valentina; Ceban, Alexandru; Gutium, Tatiana
    Evolution of the Republic of Moldova‘s Non-Observed Economy. In this article are described the types, elements and methods of assessment of the Non-Observed Economy. In addition, is analyzed the dynamics of informal sector production, hidden production of formal sector and production of households for own final use in the Republic of Moldova. The authors have analyzed the Non-Observed Economy of EU countries and other groups of countries. It is evaluated the level of the shadow economy and calculated losses of the state budget on basis of research and using the inter-branch balance.
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    Comparable analysis regarding key macroeconomic indicators on Moldova’s way towards european integration
    (Complexul Editorial al INCE, 2015) Ganciucov, Valentina; Ceban, Alina
    As Moldova has the purpose to enter the European Union the actual situation in the country is analyzed in this article. The article gives the comparative analysis of the basic parameters of Moldova with the other European Union country-members to define the ways of development of the country in the given direction. Since 1994 relations between Moldova and the European Union have developed on an upward trajectory. The dialogue between the two sides officially started that year with the signing of the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA), which entered into force in 1998 and provided the basis for cooperation with the EU in political, commercial, economic, legal, cultural fields. EU-Moldova relations have advanced to a higher level in 2009 when the country participated in the Eastern Partnership – an instrument of European policy that favored the signing on 29 May 2013 of the Association Agreement, the document which came to replace previous PCA and that is currently the most important element of the legal framework of Moldova-EU dialogue. But beyond the respective treaties signed, individually, between EU and states that intend to join the European community, there are a number of fundamental requirements3 (criteria), which condition the process of European integration of the state with declared intentions of accession. The aim of the research is to analyze to what extent Moldovan economy meet the requirements of economic alignment with EU standards, achieving a comparative analysis of the main relevant macroeconomic indicators. Research methodology. For analysis were used analysis-synthesis method, comparison method and others. Results of the analysis. Part of the criteria analyzed converge with EU requirements, while the most relevant indicators regarding standards of living show reserves show reserves for future improvement, such as the average wage, the lending rate, the exchange rate of the Moldovan Leu against the major international currencies. There are a number of other indicators such as transparency in the banking system administration, territorial conflicts (Transnistria), etc. which are points of incompatibility with the policy of the European Union.