Analize și prognoze economice

Permanent URI for this community

https://rses.ince.md/handle/123456789/37

Browse

Browsing Analize și prognoze economice by Author "Ceban, Alexandru"

Now showing 1 - 8 of 8
  • No Thumbnail Available
    Item
    Analiza comerțului exterior cu fructe al Republicii Moldova
    (INCE, 2022) Ceban, Alexandru
    Exportul de fructe deține o cota semnificativa din totalul exporturilor de produse agroalimentare, care, la randul lor, dețin o cota impunatoare in totalul comerțului extern. Acest segment al agriculturii, printr-un șir de beneficii, determina o tendința de perspective pozitive pentru domeniul dat și din an in an atrage tot mai mulți specialiști și persoane de afaceri din domeniul agrar gata pentru a investi și a dezvolta direcția data. Balanța comerciala pozitiva ce o deține Republica Moldova in segmentul respectiv demonstreaza faptul ca țara este capabila de a face fața concurenței, insa acest fapt nu semnifica ca potențialul este realizat pe deplin. Pe de alta parte, exista și riscuri care trebuie luate in considerație ce sunt specifice sectorului creșterii și comercializarii fructelor. Lucrarea urmarește scopul de a efectua o analiza a situației ce ține de comerțul extern cu fructe. Metodele de cercetare folosite pentru articolul dat sunt: analitica, descriptiva, comparativa, precum și prin prisma indicatorului Avantajul Comparativ Relevat. Aceste metode au permis de a efectua o analiza a sectorului, de a identifica punctele forte și cele slabe și de a formula unele concluzii cu privire la situația comerțului cu fructe la etapa actuala.
  • No Thumbnail Available
    Item
    Dynamics of the foreign trade of the Republic of Moldova in terms of laspeyres indicators
    (INCE, 2017) Ceban, Alexandru
    The analysis of the foreign trade allows determining the potential markets for export, main economic trade partners and exported / imported goods, the level of participation of a country in the world trade, as well as the degree of country’s competitiveness on the external and internal market, which determines the actuality of the researched topic. The paper presents the analysis of the external trade of the Republic of Moldova, observed through Laspeyres indicators, in order to determine the recent developments and find out the most competitive products or sectors that would influence on the development of new dimensions of the national trade. The paper has been developed based on the following research methods: Laspeyres index method, analysis and synthesis which allowed drawing up conclusions, as well as comparative method for the comparison of main trade partners and products. The most relevant results of the paper present a slight recovery of the national economy, while the exports and imports grow modestly. At the same time, an increase in exports to other countries (except CIS and EU countries) is noted, which have the potential to become future strategic partners for the Republic of Moldova.
  • No Thumbnail Available
    Item
    Evolution of the Republic of Moldova's Non-Observed Economy
    (AGEPI, 2017) Ganciucov, Valentina; Ceban, Alexandru; Gutium, Tatiana
    Evolution of the Republic of Moldova‘s Non-Observed Economy. In this article are described the types, elements and methods of assessment of the Non-Observed Economy. In addition, is analyzed the dynamics of informal sector production, hidden production of formal sector and production of households for own final use in the Republic of Moldova. The authors have analyzed the Non-Observed Economy of EU countries and other groups of countries. It is evaluated the level of the shadow economy and calculated losses of the state budget on basis of research and using the inter-branch balance.
  • No Thumbnail Available
    Item
    Forecasting production of domestic goods and main macroeconomic indicators
    (Complexul Editorial al INCE, 2018) Ganciucov, Valentina; Gutium, Tatiana; Ceban, Alexandru
    Managing both the modern state and the enterprises is impossible without forecasting and elaborating several development scenarios that would take into account the available resources and reflect the most likely results. The forecast has become a part of daily life and a fundamental tool for assessing development prospects. Therefore, the task of improving the economic-mathematical model for the development of forecasts is relevant, especially in modern conditions, when the national economy is subject to many factors, both external and internal. The main goal of the research is to forecast the production of domestic goods and the main macroeconomic indicators using the economic-mathematical model adapted by authors to the new conditions for the development of the Moldovan economy, considering that the share of the non-observed economy in 2016 is less than in the previous year, but remains significant. The main methods used in this study: the "input-output" method, econometric methods of research and forecasting, regression analysis, the method of analytical calculation, the method of mathematical modelling of economic processes. Using the adapted model and taking into account the processes established in the national economy, forecast interbranch balances for 2018 were developed in the division of goods, integrated into five branches of national economy, and forecasts of the main macroeconomic indicators for the Republic of Moldova were developed
  • No Thumbnail Available
    Item
    Moldova's foreign trade in the context of political and economic instability
    (USEM, 2016) Ganciucov, Valentina; Gutium, Tatiana; Ceban, Alexandru
    In this article are analyzed the dynamics of foreign trade of the Republic of Moldova, average prices and physical volumes of import and export goods under political and economic instability. Based on the outcomes are elaborated a series of measures to redress the situation in Moldova's economy in condition of a negative trade balance.
  • No Thumbnail Available
    Item
    Moldovan external trade with EU, CIS and other countries: achievements and challenges
    (INCE, 2019) Ceban, Alexandru
    The foreign trade of a state represents a determinant factor in assessing its economic statute among the neighbours and in the whole world. The actuality of the studied topic is determined by the changing trade relations that the Republic of Moldova is passing through in the last years. Republic of Moldova holds the necessary criteria for becoming a competitive country in the region in terms of the manufactured and marketed goods. The aim of the study is to evaluate the foreign trade of the Republic of Moldova, by emphasizing the main traded groups of products, trade partners as well as to analyze the average price index and physical volume index of imports and exports. The paper also comes with an analysis of re-export and re-import, which represents a peculiarity for our country’s trade pattern. Research methods that have been used within the paper are the following: analogy, systemic approach, statistical and scientific analysis, Laspeyres index method. The obtained results focus on the recovery of the foreign trade between 2015 and 2017 with higher revival rates of exports, and a growing reorientation of exports towards the European Union and other countries’ markets.
  • No Thumbnail Available
    Item
    Primele manifestări ale crizei socio-economice generate de Covid-19 în Republica Moldova
    (2020) Ianioglo, Alina; Ceban, Alexandru; Fala, Victoria
    Conform prognozelor FMI din Iunie 2020, în anul curent economia mondială va fi în declin cu 4,9% comparativ cu anul precedent, criza anticipată fiind una mai profundă comparativ cu cea din anul 2009. Pronosticurile sunt foarte pesimiste pentru liderii mondiali: în țările membre ale Zonei Euro se anticipează undeclin de aproape 10% f.a.p., iar în Statele Unite ale Americii de 8%. Estimările sunt, negative și pentru Europa emergentă și în curs de dezvoltare, nemijlocit Rusia și România, parteneri economici importanți ai Moldovei. Totodată, se pare că aceste state ar putea fi marcate de o recesiune mai puțin profundă, comparativ cu alte state înalt dezvoltate.
  • No Thumbnail Available
    Item
    Tendințe actuale în dezvoltarea producției de cireșe în Republica Moldova
    (INCE, 2022) Ceban, Alexandru; Lucasenco, Eugenia
    In recent years, the production of cherries in the Republic of Moldova has been constantly increasing, reaching a significant share in the horticultural field in terms of area and share of value in the total value of agricultural production. The development of this sector has impacted the focus of many investors and experts from the agrarian sector, proved by the fact that during the period 2016-2021 it has contributed to the increase of both, the average yield per hectare by approximately more than 3 times in agricultural enterprises and peasant farms and the actual cherry production by more than 30% in all categories of agricultural entities. Foreign trade in cherries is represented by a positive trade balance, but there are also some specific risks related to this product that will be further investigated in this paper. The purpose of the work is to carry out an analysis of the situation related to the production of cherries in the Republic of Moldova, as well as the presentation of some trends in the development of the sector. Analytical, descriptive and comparative research methods allowed the formulation of conclusions regarding the current state of the sector. Although the average yield per hectare in the analyzed period increased significantly, the occuring fluctuations of this coefficient lead us to the conclusion that there are still increased risks specific for production of cherries that deserve to be removed in order to obtain a profitable business.