Volume I International Conference on Theoretical and Applied Economic Practices ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF MOLDOVA MINISTRY OF ECONOMY OF THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CONDITIONS OF GLOBALIZATION The Tenth Edition of the International Conference on Theoretical and Applied Economic Practices VOLUME I Organized by the National Institute for Economic Research October 15-16, 2015 Chisinau, 2015 Volume I International Conference on Theoretical and Applied Economic Practices 2 333+316.422(082)=135.1=111 E 15 SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY COMMITTEE Chairman: STRATAN ALEXANDRU, PhD, Director National Institute for Economic Research Vice-Chairman: GAGAUZ OLGA, PhD, Associate Professor, NIER, Republic of Moldova BAJURA TUDOR, PhD, Director on scientifical activity, National Institute for Economic Research Scientifical committee: BELOSTECINIC GRIGORE, Academician, Prof., Rector, AESM, Republic of Moldova DUCA MARIA, Academician, Rector, UnASM, Republic of Moldova MORARU VICTOR, PhD, Prof., Acad.-coordionator SSSE, ASM, Republic of Moldova MANOLE TATIANA, PhD, Univ. Prof., NIER, Republic of Moldova SAVGA LARISA, PhD, Prof., Rector UCCM, Republic of Moldova CHIVU LUMINITA, PhD, Prof., General Director INCE, Romania DAVID SMALLBONE, Prof., Kingston University, Great Britain USACIOV IVAN, Academician, Director, All-Russian Research Institute of Agriculture Economics, Russia GRINBERG RUSLAN, Academician, Institute of Economics, Academy of Sciences, Russia VIEHE KARL WILLIAM, B. A., M. A., J. D., M. L. T., Washington, D.C., UAS ZAMAN GHEORGHE, C.M., PhD, Prof., Institute of Naţional Economy, Romania ALBU LUCIAN-LIVIU, Academician, General Director, Institute of Economic Forecast, Romania VASILE VALENTINA, PhD, Deputy Director, Institute of Naţional Economy, Romania IORDAN MĂRIOARA, PhD, Deputy Director, Institute of Economic Forecast, Romania HALLIER BERND, PhD, Prof., Director, EHI Retail Institute, Germany MUKHANOV MAKSAT, Prof., Institute of Economic Research, Kazahstan VILAYAT VALIYEV, PhD, Director, Institute of Scientific researches in economic reforms, Azerbaijan FIODOROV MIHAIL, PhD, Prof., Rector Economy University Ural, Russia GOHBERG LEONID, PhD, Prof., Pro-rector High Economic School, Director of Institute of researches in statistics and knowledge economy, Russia GRINGS MICHAEL, PhD, Prof., Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Germania ILIAS NICOLAE, PhD, Prof., University of Petrosani, Romania BALAN GHEORGHE, PhD, Prof., Deputy Rector University from Sibiu, Romania LASZLO VASA, PhD, MBA, associate professor, Szent Istvan University, Hungary ZINOVIEV FELIX, PhD, academician, Ukraine SUST ALEXANDR, Deputy director, Center of researches in public administration, Academy of administration under the President of Belarus Republic MARIN CONSTANTIN, PhD, Director, Center of Financial and Monetary Researches de „Victor Slavescu”, Romania DINGA EMIL, PhD, Prof., Center of Financial and Monetary Researches de „Victor Slavescu”, Romania SANDU STELIANA, PhD, Prof., Institute of National Economy, Bucharest, Romania PĂDUREAN ELENA, PhD, Center of Financial and Monetary Researches de „Victor Slavescu”, Romania LAPUSAN ALEXANDRU, PhD, Ing., Director, Institute of Research for Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Romania CVIJANOVIC DRAGO, PhD, Prof., Director, Institute of Agricultural Economics, Republic of Serbia GAVRILESCU CAMELIA, PhD,CS II, Institute of Agricultural Economics of the Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Romania DOBRESCU EMILIAN, Academician, Romanian Academy ANASTASE ILEANA, PhD, România COBZARI LUDMILA, PhD, Prof., Dean, AESM, Republic of Moldova ULIAN GALINA, PhD, Prof., Dean, SUM, Republic of Moldova GRIBINCEA ALEXANDRU, PhD, Univ. Prof., ULIM, Republic of Moldova CERTAN SIMION, PhD, Univ. Prof., USM, Republic of Moldova ILIADI GHEORGHE, PhD, Prof., NIER, Republic of Moldova DUMITRU PARMACLI, Doctor Honoris Causa, PhD, Prof., Republic of Moldova TOMITĂ PETRU, PhD, Univ. Prof., Decan SUAM, Republic of Moldova PARTACHI ION, PhD, Univ. Prof., ASEM, Republic of Moldova CUHAL RADU, PhD, Associate Prof, NBM, Republic of Moldova TIMUS ANGELA, PhD, Associate Prof., NIER, Republic of Moldova MACARI VADIM, PhD, Conf. Researcher, NIER, Republic of Moldova ACULAI ELENA, PhD, Conf. Researcher, NIER, Republic of Moldova SAVELIEVA GALINA, PhD, NIER, Republic of Moldova MOROZ VICTOR, PhD, Scientific Coord., NIER, Republic of Moldova ROJCO ANATOLII, PhD, Conf. Researcher, NIER, Republic of Moldova PERCIUN RODICA, PhD, Associate Prof., NIER, Republic of Moldova SUSU-TURCAN AURELIA, PhD, Associate Prof., Republic of Moldova CARA OLEG, PhD, NIER, Republic of Moldova GHITIU LILIA, PhD, NIER, Associate Prof., Republic of Moldova Reviewers: ROŞCA PETRU, PhD, Professor, International Free University of Moldova MOVILEANU PAVEL, PhD, Professor, Doctor Honoris Cauza, Republic of Moldova COBZARI LUDMILA, PhD, Professor, Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova TIMUŞ ANDREI, PhD, Professor, Institute of Philosophy, Sociology and Political Sciences of the ASM GRIBINCEA ALEXANDRU, PhD, Professor, State University from Moldova Editorial Board: Editor-in-chief: BÎRCĂ IULITA Editors: SCLIFOS ANDRIAN, GANTEA CORINA Layout and designer: SCLIFOS ANDRIAN, SANDULESCU ALEXANDRU Aprobat la Consiliul Ştiinţific al Institutului Naţional de Cercetări Economice (proces-verbal nr. 8 din 9 octombrie 2015) Elaborarea şi tipărirea Culegerii a fost finanţată în cadrul proiectului 15.220.06.13I Conferinţa Internaţională Știinţifico-Practică „CREŞTEREA ECONOMICĂ ÎN CONDIŢIILE GLOBALIZĂRII”, ediţia a X-a, câştigat la Concursul de Proiecte pentru Organizarea Manifestărilor Ştiinţifice Internaţionale pentru anul 2015, organizat de către CFCFA şi finanţat din bugetul de stat, contract de finanţare nr.13/149 din 17 septembrie 2015. Autorii poartă răspundere pentru conţinutul şi corectitudinea textelor. ISBN 978-9975-4185-1-5. © NIER, 2015 DESCRIEREA CIP A CAMEREI NAŢIONALE A CĂRŢII „Economic growth in conditions of globalization”, International Conference on Theoretical and Applied Economic Practices (10; 2015; Chişinău). Economic growth in conditions of globalization = Creşterea economică în condiţiile globalizării : International Conference on Theoretical and Applied Economic Practices 10-th ed., oct. 15-16, 2015 : (în 2 vol) scientific com.: Stratan Alexandru (et.al.); ed. bord. Bîrcă Iulita (et. al.).-Ch.:INCE, 2015-ISBN 978-9975-4185-0-8. Vol.1, 2015.- 418 p.-Antetit.: Nat.Inst.for Economic Research, Acad.of Sciences of Moldova.- Tit. paral.: lb.rom., engl.-Texte: lb. rom., engl., rusă.- Rez.:lb.engl.-Bibliogr.la sfârşitul art. -200 ex.- ISBN 978-9975-4185-1-5. 333:316.422(082)=135.1=111 E 15 Volume I International Conference on Theoretical and Applied Economic Practices ACADEMIA DE ŞTIINŢE A MOLDOVEI MINISTERUL ECONOMIEI AL REPUBLICII MOLDOVA CREŞTEREA ECONOMICĂ ÎN CONDIŢIILE GLOBALIZĂRII Conferinţa Internaţională Ştiinţifico-Practică Ediţia a X-a VOLUMUL I Organizată de Institutul Naţional de Cercetări Economice 15-16 octombrie 2015 Chişinău, 2015 Volume I International Conference on Theoretical and Applied Economic Practices 4 333+316.422(082)=135.1=111 E 15 COMITETUL ŞTIINŢIFIC Preşedinte: STRATAN ALEXANDRU, Dr. Hab., Conf. Univ., Director INCE, Republica Moldova Vicepreşedinte: GAGAUZ OLGA, Dr. Hab., Conf. Cercet., INCE, RM BAJURA TUDOR, Dr. Hab., Conf. Univ., Vicedirector INCE, Republica Moldova Comitetul ştiinţific: BELOSTECINIC GRIGORE, Academician, Rector, ASEM, RM DUCA MARIA, Academician, Rector, UnASM, RM MORARU VICTOR, Dr. Hab., Prof. Univ., Acad.-coordonator SSSE, ASM, RM MANOLE TATIANA, Dr. Hab., Prof. Univ., INCE, Republica Moldova ŞAVGA LARISA, Dr. Hab., Prof. Univ., Rector UCCM, RM CHIVU LUMINIŢA, Dr., Profesor, Director General INCE, Academia Română DAVID SMALLBONE, Profesor, Universitatea Kingston, Maria Britanie UŞACIOV IVAN, Academician, Director, Institutul de Cercetări Ştiinţifice în Economia Agriculturii, Rusia GRINBERG RUSLAN, Academician, Institutul de Economie al Academiei de Ştiinţe, Rusia VIEHE KARL WILLIAM, B.A., M.A., J.D., M.L.T., Washington, D.C., SUA ZAMAN GHEORGHE, membru corespondent, Institutul de Economie Naţională, Academia Română ALBU LUCIAN-LIVIU, Academician, Director General, Institutul de Prognoză Economică, Academia Română VASILE VALENTINA, Dr., Director Adjunct, Institutul de Economie Naţională, Academia Română IORDAN MĂRIOARA, Dr., Director Adjunct, Institutul de Prognoză Economică, Academia Română HALLIER BERND, Dr.Hab., Profesor, Director, EHI Retail Institute, Germania MUHANOV MAKSAT, Profesor, Institutul de cercetări economice, Kazahstan VILAYAT VALIYEV, Dr.Hab., Director, Institutul de cercetări ştiinţifice în reformele economice, Azerbaijan FIODOROV MIHAIL, Dr. Hab., Prof., Rector Universitatea de Economie din Ural, Rusia GOHBERG LEONID, Dr. Hab., Prof., Prim Prorector Şcoala Economică Superioară, Directorul Institutului de cercetări în statistică şi a economiei cunoaşterii, Rusia GRINGS MICHAEL, Dr., Prof., Universitatea Martin Luther Halle-Wittenberg, Germania ILIAŞ NICOLAE, Dr., Prof., Universitatea din Petrosani, România BALAN GHEORGHE, Dr., Prof., Vice-rector Universitatea din Sibiu, România LASZLO VASA, Dr., MBA, Prof. Asociat , Szent Istvan University, Ungaria ZINOVIEV FELIX, Dr. Hab., Academician, Ucraina ŞUST ALEXANDR, Vice-director, Centrul de cercetări al administraţiei publice, Academia de administrare de pe lângă Preşedintele Republicii Belarus MARIN CONSTANTIN, Dr., Director Centrul de Cercetări Financiare şi Monetare „Victor Slăvescu”, România DINGA EMIL, Dr., Prof., Centrul de Cercetări Financiare şi Monetare „Victor Slăvescu”, România SANDU STELIANA, Dr., Prof., Institutul de Economie Naţională, Bucureşti, România PĂDUREAN ELENA, Dr., Centrul de Cercetări Financiare şi Monetare „Victor Slăvescu”, România LĂPUŞAN ALEXANDRU, Dr. Ing., Director, Institutul de Cercetare pentru Economia Agriculturii şi Dezvoltare Rurală, România CVIJANOVIC DRAGO, Dr., Prof., Director, Institutul de Economie Agrară, Serbia GAVRILESCU CAMELIA, Dr., CS II, Institutul de Economie Agrară, Academia Română DOBRESCU EMILIAN, Academician, Academia Română ANASTASE ILEANA, Dr., România COBZARI LUDMILA, Dr. Hab., Prof. Univ., Decan ASEM, RM ULIAN GALINA, Dr. Hab., Prof. Univ., Decan USM, RM GRIBINCEA ALEXANDRU, Dr. Hab., Prof. Univ., ULIM, RM CERTAN SIMION, Dr. Hab., Prof. Univ., USM, RM ILIADI GHEORGHE, Dr. Hab., Prof. Cercet., INCE, RM TOMIŢĂ PETRU, Dr., Prof. Univ., Decan UASM, RM PÂRŢACHI ION, Dr., Prof. Univ., ASEM, RM CUHAL RADU, Dr., Conf. Univ., BNM, RM TIMUŞ ANGELA, Dr., Conf. Cercet., INCE, RM MACARI VADIM, Dr., Conf. Cercet., INCE, RM ACULAI ELENA, Dr., Conf. Cercet., INCE, RM SAVELIEVA GALINA, Dr., Conf. Cercet.,INCE, RM MOROZ VICTOR, Dr., Conf. Cercet., INCE, RM ROJCO ANATOLII, Dr., Conf. Cercet., INCE, RM PERCIUN RODICA, Dr., Conf. Cercet., INCE, RM ŞUŞU-TURCAN AURELIA, Dr., Conf. Univ., RM CARA OLEG, Dr., INCE, RM GHIŢIU LILIA, Dr., Conf. Cercet., INCE, RM Recenzenţi: ROŞCA PETRU, PhD, Professor, International Free University of Moldova MOVILEANU PAVEL, PhD, Professor, Doctor Honoris Causa, Republic of Moldova COBZARI LUDMILA, PhD, Professor, Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova TIMUŞ ANDREI, PhD, Professor, Institute of Philosophy, Sociology and Political Sciences of the ASM GRIBINCEA ALEXANDRU, PhD, Professor, State University from Moldova Colegiul editorial: Redactor-şef: BÎRCĂ IULITA Redactori: SCLIFOS ANDRIAN, GANTEA CORINA Machetator şi designer: SCLIFOS ANDRIAN, SANDULESCU ALEXANDRU Aprobat la Consiliul Ştiinţific al Institutului Naţional de Cercetări Economice (proces-verbal nr. 8 din 9 octombrie 2015) Elaborarea şi tipărirea Culegerii a fost finanţată în cadrul proiectului 15.220.06.13I Conferinţa Internaţională Ştiinţifico-Practică „CREŞTEREA ECONOMICĂ ÎN CONDIŢIILE GLOBALIZĂRII”, ediţia a X-a, câştigat la Concursul de Proiecte pentru Organizarea Manifestărilor Ştiinţifice Internaţionale pentru anul 2015, organizat de către CFCFA şi finanţat din bugetul de stat, contract de finanţare nr.13/149 din 17 septembrie 2015. Autorii poartă răspundere pentru conţinutul şi corectitudinea textelor. ISBN 978-9975-4185-1-5. © INCE, 2015 DESCRIEREA CIP A CAMEREI NAŢIONALE A CĂRŢII „Economic growth in conditions of globalization”, International Conference on Theoretical and Applied Economic Practices (10; 2015; Chişinău). Economic growth in conditions of globalization = Creşterea economică în condiţiile globalizării : International Conference on Theoretical and Applied Economic Practices 10-th ed., oct. 15-16, 2015 : (în 2 vol) scientific com.: Stratan Alexandru (et.al.); ed. bord. Bîrcă Iulita (et. al.).- Ch.:INCE, 2015- ISBN 978-9975-4185-0-8. Vol.1, 2015.- 418 p.- Antetit.: Nat.Inst.for Economic Research, Acad.of Sciences of Moldova.- Tit. paral.: lb.rom., engl.- Texte: lb. rom., engl., rusă.-Rez.:lb.engl.-Bibliogr.la sfârşitul art. -200 ex.- ISBN 978-9975-4185-1-5. 333:316.422(082)=135.1=111 E 15 Volume I International Scientific and Practical Conference 5 SESIUNEA PLENARĂ PLENARY SESSION Karl William Viehe, B. A., M. A., J. D., M. L. T., Washington, D.C., UAS Global risks & the moldovan economy 12 Alexandru Stratan, PhD, Professor, NIER, Chisinau Victor Moroz, NIER, Chisinau Anatolie Ignat, NIER, Chisinau Eugenia Lucasenco, NIER, Chisinau Development of the agri-food sector in the Republic of Moldova 18 Александр Шуст, магистр экономических наук, Академия управления при Президенте Р. Беларусь Современная экономическая политика Республики Беларусь 24 Lucian Liviu Albu, Acad. Institutul de Prognoză Economică, INCE, Academia Română, România Ion Ghizdeanu, Prof. univ. dr. Institutul de Prognoză Economică, INCE, Academia Română, România Convergenţa creşterii reale şi potenţiale a PIB în ţările UE: învăţăminte pentru Republica Moldova 30 Simion Certan, profesor, dr. hab., UASM Ion Certan, dr., USM Reflecţii cu privire la dezvoltarea economiei naţionale 37 Camelia Gavrilescu, conf., dr., CS II, Institutul de Economie Agrară al Academiei Române, Bucureşti România Marius Voicilaş, CS II, Institutul de Economie Agrarăal Academiei Române, Bucureşti, România Comerţul Uniunii Europene cu Federaţia Rusă – o analiză a evoluţiilor de pe piaţa cărnii 45 Euphrasia Susy Suhendra, PhD, prof., University of Gunadarma, Indonezia Lahcen Boumedjout, Indonezia Audrey Chandra, Indonezia Knowledge Management on Pulmonary Complication of HIV Patients with Data Mining Approach 51 Rodica Perciun, dr., conf. cercet., INCE Consideraţii privind conceptul de securitate economică a statului 55 Alexandru Lăpuşan, dr., ICEADR, Bucureşti Ana Ursu, dr., cercetăt. şt., gr. II, ICEADR, Bucureşti Studiu privind perspectivele fermelor mici din România în condiţiile globalizării 61 Angela Timuş, doctor, conf. cercet., INCE Irina Nasalciuc, doctorand, INCE Analiza trioului Investiţii-Subvenţii-Costuri sub aspectul dezvoltării globale a economiei regenerabilelor 68 “Economic growth in conditions of globalization” Volume I 6 Secţiunea I POLITICI DE CREŞTERE ECONOMICĂ DURABILĂ ŞI CALITATIVĂ Section I POLICIES FOR SUSTAINABLE AND QUALITATIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH Ion Ghizdeanu, prof., IEF, NIER, Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Romania Marioara Iordan, dr., IEF, NIER, Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Romania Mihaela-Nona Chilian, dr., IEF, NIER, Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Romania Dana Tapu, dr., IEF, NIER, Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Romania Real convergence in the Romanian regions in the period of post-accession to the European Union 77 Eugen Roşcovanu, magistru în economie, Asociaţia Micului Business Influenţele ALSAC (DCFTA) asupra dezvoltării IMM-lor 84 Константин Таушанжи, доктор экономики, Комратский государственный университет Наталья Начогло, докторантка, Комратский государственный университет Качество экономического роста: проблемы и суждения 89 Andreea Ioana Cozianu, PhD, University Lecturer „Stefan cel Mare” University from Suceava, Romania The role of tradition and the economic performance in the global world 94 Nikola Trendov, PhD Student, management sciences, doctoral school, Kaposvar University, Hungary Dumitru Stratan, PhD Student, management sciences, doctoral school, Kaposvar University, Hungary WTO perspectives on developing countries 97 Ольга Красовская, кандидат экономических наук, ведущий научный сотрудник Института экономических исследований и политических консультаций, Киев, Украина Реформы в Украине – миф или реальность? 100 Елена Акулай, др. хаб., конф. исслед., INCE Наталья Виноградова, др., конф. исслед., INCE Малое семейное предприятие: специфические возможности и риски в условиях Республики Молдова 104 George Balan, conf. univ., Universitatea Româno-Germană din Sibiu, România Larisa Dragolea, conf. univ., Universitatea ,,1 Decembrie 1918” din Alba Iulia, România Ilie Bogdan, Universitatea de Petrol şi Gaze din Ploieşti, România Învăţământul superior şi globalizarea 110 Марина Черная, д-р экон. наук, профессор, Харьковский Государственный Университет Питания и Торговли Сергей Зубков, канд. экон. наук, доцент, Харьковский Государственный Университет Питания и Торговли Цикличность экономического развития экономики: аспекты обеспечения конкурентоспособности предприятия торговли 114 Юлия Абухович, магистр экономических наук, Академия управления при Президенте Республики Беларусь Перспективы сотрудничества восточноевропейских государств с региональными банками развития 120 Tatiana Bucos, doctor în ştiinţe economice, ASEM Abordarea creşterii economice sustenabile prin prisma conceptului de potenţial economic 124 Oxana Barbăneagră, doctor în ştiinţe economice, ASEM Interferenţa ordinii economice şi a proprietăţii 130 Volume I International Scientific and Practical Conference 7 Corina Matei-Gherman, doctor în ştiinţe economice Previziunea fenomenelor şi proceselor economice pe piaţă 135 Тамила Кушнир, канд. экон. наук, доцент, Харьковский Государственный Университет Питания и Торговли Лилия Филипишина, канд. экон. наук, доцент, Первомайский Политехнический Институт Национального Университета кораблестроения им. адмирала Макарова Проблемы и перспективы устойчивого и качественного экономического развития субъектов торговой инфраструктуры потребительского рынка Украины 141 Elvira Naval, dr. în informatică, Institutul de Matematică şi Informatică Modelul de calcul de echilibru general la evaluarea creşterii economice 147 Daniela Antonescu, România Exportul regional – factor al specializării SMART în România 152 Виталий Грига, кандидат экономических наук, старший научный сотрудник, ГУ «Институт экономики и прогнозирования НАН Украины» Налоговое стимулирование развития высоких технологий: пример Украины 157 Gheorghe Cuciureanu, dr. hab., IDSI, RM Nelly Ţurcan, dr.hab., IDSI, RM Lilian Friptuleac, drd., IDSI, RM Conţinutul ştiinţific digital ca element al managementului cercetării-dezvoltării în Republica Moldova 163 Margareta Bradu, lector superior, Facultatea de Ştiinţe Economice, USM Dezvoltarea competitivităţii economiei naţionale prin cercetare şi încurajarea ideilor inovatoare 169 Anastasia Djugostran, doctorandă, USM, lector superior, USEM Creşterea economică şi factorii de stopare a acesteia 172 Georgiana Chiţiga, cercetător ştiintific, Centrul de Cercetări Financiare şi Monetare „Victor Slăvescu”, Academia Română Importanţa politicii şi strategiilor de mediu în susţinerea unei economii durabile în UE 176 Oleg Frunze, dr., lect. sup., Academia de Administrare Publică Spectrul de abordări privind dezvoltarea durabilă pentru diverse economii 181 Dorina Niţă, dr., conf.univ., Universitatea din Petroşani Business incubators – support structures for entrepreneurial initiatives 184 Natalia Guslicova, cercetător ştiinţific, INCE Некоторые вопросы обеспечения стабильности социально-экономического развития национальной экономики 190 Gabriela-Cornelia Piciu, cercetător ştiinţific, ICFM „Victor Slăvescu”, Bucureşti, România Rolul şi importanţa managementului în politica sustenabilă de mediu 196 Catalin Dragoi, cercetător ştiinţific, Institutul de Cercetări Financiare şi Monetare „Victor Slăvescu”, Bucureşti Managementul riscurilor ecologice la nivelul ţărilor şi capacitatea de finanţare a acestora 201 Zinaida Toacă, dr., sc. resear. coord. INCE Alina Ceban, cercetător ştiinţific, INCE Model trimestrial de prognoză a PIB-ului Republicii Moldova 205 Flavius Florin Răvăşilă, MA National School of Political Science and Public Administration (SNSPA) Modelul german şi modelarea Europei 213 Alexandra Novac, doctor în ştiinţe economice, INCE Elena Bordian, cercetător ştiinţific, INCE Tendinţele de dezvoltare a pieţei publicaţiilor tipărite în Republica Moldova 219 “Economic growth in conditions of globalization” Volume I 8 Alexandru Boroiu, dr. ing., Universitatea din Piteşti Florin-Tiberiu Iacob-Ridzi, dr. ing., Primăria Petroşani Propuneri pentru dezvoltarea reţelei de autostrăzi din România pe principiul creşterii accesibilităţii geografice a teritoriului 226 Danaia Beţivu, cercetător ştiinţific, INCE Ala Beţivu, dr., conf., UASM Oportunităţi de valorificare turistică a reţelei hidrografice a Republicii Moldova 232 Cristian Alexandru Dobre, doctorand, Universitatea „Lucian Blaga” din Sibiu Cristina Bătuşaru, doctorand, Universitatea „Lucian Blaga” din Sibiu Alexandra Otetea, doctorand, Universitatea „Lucian Blaga” din Sibiu Mihai Aristotel Ungureanu, prof. univ., dr., Universitatea „Lucian Blaga” din Sibiu Strategii de management în economia minieră 237 Dumitru Odainîi, doctorand, Universitatea Tehnică a Moldovei Zonele economice libere – o metodă de asigurare a creşterii economice la nivel local şi naţional 242 Iosif Andras, PhD Professor, University of Petrosani Nicolae Iliaş, PhD Professor, University of Petrosani Sorin Mihai Radu, PhD Professor, University of Petrosani Dan Marinescu, PhD student eng., University of Petrosani Eduard Mija, PhD student eng., University of Petrosani Lucian Preda, PhD student eng., University of Petrosani Inga Roşioru, PhD student ec., University of Petrosani Un factor de dezvoltare durabilă regională – energetica bazată pe arderea curată a cărbunelui 246 Victoria Trofimov, dr., prof. univ., UCCM Orest Dabija, doctorand, Institutul Naţional de Cercetări Economice Modalităţi de eficientizare a managementului cultural din Republica Moldova 253 Daniela Bradutanu, PhD, Change Manager Validating a proposed model of the forces that generate resistance to change within an organization 257 Inga Roşioru, PhD. Student, University of Petroşani, Romania Criterii şi indicatori utilizaţi pentru evaluarea dezvoltării durabile a unui sistem tehnologic minier 262 W. Wilhelm Kecs, Prof., PhD Sorin Mihai Radu, Prof., PhD Gabriel Dolea, Assoc. Prof., PhD Maria Malanciuc, stud., University of Petrosani, Romania Proposed model for the optimisation of the exploitation in longwall faces in Jiu Valley coal mines 266 Daniel Vladislav, Lecturer, Dr., University of Petrosani, Romania Marius Heljiu, Lecturer, Dr., University of Petrosani, Romania Florin Vilceanu, PhD. Student Eng., University of Petrosani, Romania Mircea Petrini, PhD. Student Eng., University of Petrosani, Romania Methodology of establishing residual lifetime of lifting instalation by non-destructive methods 272 Florin-Tiberiu Iacob-Ridzi, dr. ing., Primăria Petroşani Creşterea accesibilităţii geografice a depresiunii Petroşani prin reabilitarea drumului national Petroşani – Brezoi 275 Teodora Mititica, PhD. Student Sorin Mihai Radu, Prof. PhD. Ioan Prip, PhD. Student Nadia Ionitescu, PhD. Student, University of Petrosani, Faculty of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering Researches regarding the temperature evolution of the coal deposits in Oltenia quaries 281 Нина Исакова, кандидат экономических наук, старший научный сотрудник, Институт исследований научно-технического потенциала и истории науки им. Г. М. Доброва НАН Украины Предпринимательская наука в национальной инновационной системе Украины 285 Volume I International Scientific and Practical Conference 9 Oleg Buga, doctor habilitat, profesor universitar, Universitatea de Stat „Alecu Russo”, Bălţi Natalia Melnic, doctorandă, Universitatea Pedagogică de Stat „Ion Creangă” Analiza evoluţiei industriale de la teoria lui Taylor la teoria sistemelor deschise 291 Irina Todos, dr., conf. univ. Natalia Zarişneac, lector superior, Universitatea de Stat „B. P. Hasdeu” din Cahul Creşterea competitivităţii întreprinderii prin utilizarea managementului performanţei 295 Vera Lupaşco, drd., lector superior, USEM Reorganizarea societăţilor comerciale a Republicii Moldova în noua arhitectură de securitate regională 301 Dorin Roşu, drd., an I, Institutul Naţional de Cercetări Economice Rolul politicilor în procesul de dezvoltare a clusterelor de afaceri 205 Vladimir Cucirevii, dr. în economie, conferenţiar cercetător,Institutul Naţional de Cercetări Economice Oportunităţi pentru dezvoltarea afacerilor de familie 309 Tatiana Tofan, dr. în economie, conf. univ., Academia de Administrare Publică Experienţa Uniunii Europene privind implementarea şi monitorizarea politicii de coeziune 315 Carmen Beatrice Pauna, Dr., IEF, Bucharest, Romania Marioara Iordan, Dr., Bucharest, Romania Mihaela-Nona Chilian, Dr., Bucharest, Romania Increasing Regional Innovation – Key Task of the European Cohesion Policy 317 “Economic growth in conditions of globalization” Volume I 10 Secţiunea II ECONOMIE AGROALIMENTARĂ ŞI DEZVOLTARE RURALĂ Section II AGRI-FOOD ECONOMICS AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT Дмитрий Пармакли, доктор хабилитат экономических наук, профессор К вопросу оценки уровней производства и реализации продукции земледелия 330 Tudor Bajura, dr. hab., prof., Institutul Naţional de Cercetări Economice Activitatea investiţională şi problema datoriilor în sectorul agricol autohton 335 Василий Ерохин, к.э.н., доцент, Московский финансово-юридический университет МФЮА, Россия Иван Иволга, аспирант, Ставропольский государственный аграрный университет, Россия Особенности трансформации продовольственного рынка России в условиях вступления страны в ВТО 344 Liliana Cimpoies, PhD, State Agrarian University of Moldova Exploring the distribution of agricultural subsidies in Moldova 347 Анна Иволга, к.э.н., доцент, Ставропольский государственный аграрный университет, Россия Продовольственная безопасность и устойчивое развитие села: предпосылки формирования комплексной агропродовольственной политики России 350 Mirela-Adriana Rusali, PhD CSIII, IEA, Academia Română Evaluări ale creşterii exporturilor de produse agroalimentare în piaţa mondială, post-aderare: cazul României 356 Mioara Borza, Lector, dr., Universitatea „Alexandru Ioan Cuza”, Iaşi, România, Facultatea de Economie şi Administrarea Afacerilor Agricultura românească în tranziţie: schimbări, provocări şi particularităţi 360 Maria Oleiniuc, dr., lector superior, USARB Asigurarea calităţii şi siguranţa produselor alimentare 366 Virgiliu Morei, dr., conf. univ., Universitatea Agrară de Stat din Moldova Andrei Zbancă, dr., conf. univ. inter., Universitatea Agrară de Stat din Moldova Utilizarea tehnologiilor agricole superintensive în contextul dezvoltării durabile a spaţiului rural 369 Elena Mihaela Serb (Ilie), PhD Student, Valahia University of Targoviste, Carmen Bena (Tincu), PhD Student, Valahia University of Targoviste, The advantages of implementing the CARE model for sustainable agriculture in France with expansion in Europe 374 Olesea Cojocaru, PhD Student, scientific researcher, IPASP „Nicolae Dimo” Physical properties of investigated soils and their importance in appreciation the danger of erosion in rural area 379 Otilia Manta, drd., Şcoala de Studii Avansate a Academiei Române Social, economic and financial inclusion of the rural area 384 Cornel Coşer, drd., asistent universitar, Universitatea Agrară de Stat din Moldova Comerţul agroalimentar internaţional – conjunctură şi tendinţe 390 Татьяна Дудогло, ст. преподаватель Комратского государственного университета Сравнительная оценка эффективности использова ния земли в сельском хозяйстве 396 Diana Şontea, doctorandă, UTM Eficientizarea procesului de bugetare în cadrul întreprinderilor de zahăr din Republica Moldova 400 Vasile Matei, Ing. Master, S. C. Agricost S.R.L., Brăila Floarea-soarelui: tehnologii moderne de combatere a buruienilor, bolilor şi dăunătorilor 405 Viorel Tureţchi, cercetător ştiinţific, INCE Avantajele şi factorii de risc privind producerea legumelor în sistem ecologic în Republica Moldova 411 Светлана Кураксина, доктор экономических наук, ст. препод., Комратского государственного университета Политика антикризисного управления предприятиями аграрного сектора 415 Volume I International Scientific and Practical Conference 11 SESIUNEA PLENARĂ PLENARY SESSION “Economic growth in conditions of globalization” Volume I 12 GLOBAL RISKS & THE MOLDOVAN ECONOMY Karl William Viehe1, Dr. B.A., M.A., J.D., M.L.T. I want to first thank the Ministry of Economics and its National Institute of Economic Research for the opportunity to speak at this conference. I have done so several times in the past and it is always a great pleasure to be with the wonderful people attending the conference. I want to make some observations that are of general importance to all those in attendance. RULE OF LAW There is no International Rule of Law Events of the last 18 months demonstrate that this is not even actively aspirational. I ) General International Economic Risks In 1996 I was writing observations about a forthcoming bubble in Russia. At the time I was working as a legal consultant for a Russian bank. I observe what I call the “hotel risk”. By this I mean that the explosion in costs for hotel rooms far exceeded the reasonable basis based upon economic growth. This is not in any way a particular criticism of Russia, this is really just what happens in relatively open economies. In 1998, the Asian/Russian mobile broke. At that time, the US economy was relatively strong and was able to provide effective demand for products from many countries. This meant that the 1998 crisis was relatively moderate. At the same time the US economy was faced with exploding growth in securities, particularly high-tech investment instruments. The asset growth far exceeded the ability of revenue streams to support the asset prices. This led to the 1999- 2000 high-tech bust. 1993 I saw a renewal of asset growth in the real estate markets. In the next few years the housing bubble inflated to excess and in 2007/2008 the bubble broke. I had begun writing about this bubble in 2003. The international capital markets are already expressing concern about the risk position of their portfolios. Although certainly the first increases will be moderate, perhaps on the order of a quarter percent and not more than half of a percent, the markets are so sensitive to the impact of rate increases on equities that almost certainly there will be a flight to risk quality instruments. Most likely this will entail a flight of much international capital into US government bond instruments. Thus, despite Dodd – Frank and Basel III, is quite possible that repetition of Lehman Brothers or AIG events may occur, and quite likely, could be significantly larger in scale. “Too big to fail” will not guarantee against failure. From Bloomberg BusinessWeek, 12 October 2015, Ben Bernanke speaks in an interview with Charlie Rose: Charlie Rose: when it came time to save AIG you felt you had no choice? Bernanke: We had no choice. It was the world’s largest insurance company. It was connected with all the other major firms in the world. And on top of the Lehman failure, I think it would have basically brought the system down. There’s a very good chance the financial system would have gone completely into stasis. And then, even though we were able to arrest the panic, the economy took a very serious blow. And of course we’d still not completely recovered. From Bloomberg BusinessWeek, 12 October 2015, Ben Bernanke speaks in an interview with Charlie Rose: Charlie Rose: when you rescued AIG, did you have any control over what did with all that money? Bernanke: Oh, yes. We did. With the money we gave them, they had their obligations. The basic problem is, they came to us and said “look, we’ve got 85 billion collateral calls, margin calls, payments that we have to make this week. We haven’t got the cash, Lend us the cash against our firm, taking the firm as collateral, we can make those payments”. After that, we sent people into AIG just to make sure that we understood what was going on inside the firm. So yes, we were very involved in what AIG did after they received the light. If we look at the content notes of Bernanke’s comments above, and particularly looking at the growth in Chinese equities, and the almost 2 trillion lost in that market in late August / early September, it’s quite possible that a new run on the markets will occur with the first indication of the Federal Reserve discount rate starting a climb towards normalcy. Normalcy, in this sense could mean interest rates in the range of 4 to 6%. As a normal flight to quality, the capital flows will move from high risk BRICS and below markets into the more sophisticated markets in Europe and United States. Writing in an article in the Washington Post entitled “a global economy in peril, ”Lawrence Summers, former Secretary of Treasury, notes that the strongest explanation for this combination of slow growth, expected low inflation and zero real rates is the “secular stagnation hypothesis.” It follows that a combination of higher savings propensity, lower investment propensities and increased risk aversion have operated to depress real interest rates that go with full employment to the point where the zero lower bound on nominal rates is constraining. He goes on to say that “what is needed now is something equivalent but on a global scale – a signal that the authorities recognize that the secular stagnation is the dominant risk we face. The Fed (U.S. Federal Reserve Bank) must also state its main is to help prevent global financial fragility from leading to a global recession”. 1 © 2015 Karl William Viehe Volume I International Scientific and Practical Conference 13 The central banks of Europe and Japan need to be clear that their biggest risk is a further slow down. “If I am right and policy proceeds along the current path, the risk is that the global economy will fall into a trap not unlike the one Japan has been in for 25 years, where growth stagnates but little can be done to fix it. It is an irony of today’s secular stagnation that what is conventionally regarded as imprudent offers the only prudent way forward”. Lawrence Summers, the Washington Post, “a global economy in peril” 8 October 2015. The world is rather a more complex place than it was 25 years ago at the time of the collapse of the Berlin wall. The United States and the Soviet Union spent decades battling each other for international intellectual and political predominance. United States had always expected that the world would become a more friendly and predictable place were the Soviet Union to collapse. That has not proven to be the case. In the years of the Cold War there was a rather defined static equilibrium among four major political entities: United States, Europe, the Soviet Union and China. As is the case now, for the most part, the southern hemisphere was not considered a player in international affairs. When the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe dissociated, two decades of political intrigue resulted, now most evident by events in Ukraine and simmering threats to the Baltics and Moldova. Although the result has been a substantial increase in political and economic freedoms in most of the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, the countries are confronted with political choices that involve extraordinary political and social economic risks principally due to Russian revanchist politics. If there is a question about his allegation of causality, try the legal “but for” test. Balancing these risks is a very precarious process. In this brief presentation, I want to make a few observations of what the international community may be facing in the coming months/years. I) in the coming years Russia will be faced with claims for reparations arising from its conduct in its bordering nations, Ukraine, the Baltics, Moldova, etc. Russia is quite familiar with such reparation claims as it participated, following World War II, in reparation negotiations against Germany. It may be that the claims arising from Ukraine alone will be in excess of $4 trillion, twice Russian GDP. II) the international community outside of Russia should not disparage Russia for having made a choice to “reconstruct” (perestroika replayed ??) itself in the model of the owners old Soviet autarchy. This is Russia’s choice. The international community has no obligation to have any economic relationships with Russia. For the most part, that was the case in the 80 years of the Soviet autarchy. III) is quite possible that the sanctions that have been directed at Russia thus far will be seen as minimal in the view of sanctions that can be applied were Russia to continue its invasive techniques. It is quite possible that the Russian Federation will be “zeroed-out” by future sanctions. This will be perfectly consistent with Minister Lavrov’s call for a “Reset 2,” a reconstruction of the reconstruction = реконструкция реконструкции, or, perhaps, a perestroika perestroiki. As part of future sanctions, it is quite likely that China will be placed in the position of having to choose an exclusionary economic relationship with Russia or continuing economic relationships with North America and the European Union. The economics of that choice are obvious. It is understood that such a zeroing of economic relationships will be quite expensive for the alliance against Russia, perhaps several trillion dollars or dollars equivalents, but, nevertheless such action will be far less damaging than the nuclear threat that President Putin has placed on the table. II) Russia Risk At one point President Putin made a remark that the breakup the of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical disaster in history. While it may not have been the greatest geopolitical disaster, I do agree that it was rather unfortunate. The problem was that no one in power at that time had any idea of how to reform the Soviet Union. Had the Soviet Union been able to transform itself into a voluntary association of nation-states, similar to the European Union, it clearly would have been a positive development. However, at that time, none of the politicians that the factor were in charge at any knowledge of the legal structure of a market economy nor did they have anywhere near the capital that would have been required to bring about a transformation. Finally, to those in power in the 15 republics, the attraction of being freed from the yoke of Moscow was simply too attractive to resist. I would like to make one side note on this issue, in the first half of 1991 I was working with a number of young individuals in the FSU structure. What was proposed was the creation of a Eurasian Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency similar to the multilateral investment guarantee agency of the World Bank. Indeed into August 1991, we had all 15 republics agreeing to create such an agency. All the papers were drafted and ready to be signed. I left Moscow on 16 August 1991. All of the documents necessary to create the EMIGA were in the hands of those participating. A few days later the coup d’etat in which Gorbachev was held in the south of the country took place. This single event brought the project to a halt. On 8 December of the same year, the tripartite conference in Minsk brought the Soviet Union to a dissolution. Following this, there was an incursion of all the Western international institutions and organizations offering technical assistance to the republics of the former Soviet Union. The promise of tens of billions of dollars from various sources of international aid siphoned off the interest in the creation of EMIGA. With the political uncertainty throughout the region and argument can be made that such an agency should again be considered. It’s interesting to note that the current “powers that be” in Russia seem not to understand that empires forcefully constructed are ultimately doomed. The European Union has been forged as a diplomatic construct over 60 years with an extraordinary amount of give and take. Even now, it faces issues with respect to membership, witness the recent proposition for a 2016 referendum that the United Kingdom disassociate itself from the European Union, the recent vote of Scotland to secede / disassociate itself from the United Kingdom and the notions of the Shetland Islands to withdraw from Scotland. In “Economic growth in conditions of globalization” Volume I 14 Canada, there has long been a movement for Quebec to secede. In the United States, there is a movement in Texas for that state to secede from the nation. As for businesses, consider the Russian risk with respect to strategic planning as follows. If Russia is willing to expropriate property of Crimea with a total absence of any process other than military action, facing a future investment of six to $10 billion, that is, essentially an investment with a negative asset value of $10 billion, why would Russia have any hesitation to take over a foreign investment with a large capital investment and or a cash flow. Looking at the “political” history of foreign investment in Russia over the past two decades, it’s quite likely that the powers that be in the Kremlin would have little compunction to restrain from expropriating any foreign investment. Faced with voluminous legal claims resulting from its oil-spill in the Gulf of Mexico, Deepwater Horizon, 20 April 2010, almost five years later, at least, litigation is still proceeding with legal claims by both BP and various opponents. Such legal process will not be the case in the Russian legal system. Of that, the company can be sure. I) in the coming years Russia will be faced with claims for reparations arising from its conduct in its bordering nations, Ukraine, the Baltics, Moldova, etc. Russia is quite familiar with such reparation claims as it participated, following World War II, in reparation negotiations against Germany. It may be that the claims arising from Crimea alone, based on standard methods of asset valuation, will be in excess of $4 trillion, twice Russian GDP. It is quite possible that east Ukraine claims may be twice that amount. II) the international community outside of Russia should not disparage Russia for having made a choice to “reconstruct” (perestroika replayed??) itself in the model of the owners old Soviet autarchy. This is Russia’s choice. The international community has no obligation to have any economic relationships with Russia. For the most part, that was the case in the 80 years of the Soviet autarchy. III) is quite possible that the sanctions that have been directed at Russia thus far will be seen as minimal in the view of sanctions that can be applied were Russia to continue its invasive techniques. It is quite possible that the Russian Federation will be “zeroed – out” by future sanctions. This will be perfectly consistent with Minister Lavrov’s call for a “Reset 2”, a reconstruction of the reconstruction = реконструкция реконструкции, or, perhaps, a perestroika perestroiki. As part of future sanctions, it is quite likely that China will be placed in the position of having to choose an exclusionary economic relationship with Russia or continuing economic relationships with North America and the European Union. The economics of that choice are obvious: $30 T GDP +/- for the US/EU trading relationship verses ten percent of that for Russia and it friends. It is understood that such a zeroing of economic relationships will be quite expensive for the alliance against Russia, perhaps several trillion dollars or dollars equivalents, but, nevertheless such action will be far less damaging than the nuclear threat that President Putin has placed on the table. V) China Risk China has made a remarkable, extraordinary investment in its infrastructure. Although the country was late to the modernization game, the quality of its infrastructure is quite good. It remains to be seen whether the maintenance of the infrastructure will be on a par with its construction. The problem I see in China is that its political establishment continues to flood the economy with capital from various sources with no certainty that the capital will be placed in productive. Asset values have exploded but it is quite possible with all the overproduction of housing and manufacturing facilities the return on capital is significantly negative. There is little doubt, however, that the central government will continue to flood the markets with capital. Quite possible that China could open its doors to foreign participation in the economy which can absorb much of the overstock of capital assets. The problem is that China would have to do so with a little attitude towards political economy. At some point in the future, China will face the same issues of dissolution that the Soviet Union / Russia faced in the late 1980s and 1990s. It’s not at all clear how those issues will sort out, and certainly China has more overall social homogeneity then the former Soviet Union had prior to its break up. VI) United States Risk United States faces much of the same risks of every other country with respect to its capital markets. Almost $2 trillion of ex-pat capital resides offshore due to the burdensome tax structure in the United States. As we move towards election this will become a topic of much discussion among the politicians. The United States also has a tax code that is extraordinary burdensome. However, it is unlikely that the politicians will formulate a restructured tax code that will make it attractive for its citizens and domestic and foreign investors. It is top-down in every election cycle and forgotten the action takes place. United States also has a very serious problem with its relationship in the international community. It is quite arguable that many of its historic alliances are jeopardized by the concern that United States will not stand behind its assurances in forthcoming conflicts with Russia. Is quite possible that the stress to the international relationship with Russia quite likely will lead to a hardline result in the forthcoming 2016 elections. The Wall Street Journal NOTABLE & QUOTABLE Notable & Quotable: Ronald Reagan ‘We find ourselves increasingly in a position of dangerous isolation’. Oct. 6, 2014 7:09 p.m. ET From Republican presidential candidate Ronald Reagan ’s address to the Veterans of Foreign Wars Convention in Chicago, Aug. 18, 1980: Volume I International Scientific and Practical Conference 15 Soviet leaders talk arrogantly of a so-called “correlation of forces” that has moved in their favor, opening up opportunities for them to extend their influence. The response from the administration in Washington has been one of weakness, inconsistency, vacillation and bluff. A Soviet combat brigade is discovered in Cuba; the Carter Administration declares its presence 90 miles off our shore as “unacceptable.” The brigade is still there. Soviet troops mass on the border of Afghanistan. The President issues a stern warning against any move by those troops to cross the border. They cross the border, execute the puppet President they themselves installed in 1978, and carry out a savage attack on the people of Afghanistan. Our credibility in the world slumps further. The President proclaims we’ll protect the Middle East by force of arms and two weeks later admits we don’t have the force. Is it only Jimmy Carter’s lack of coherent policy that is the source of our difficulty? Is it his vacillation and indecision? Or is there another, more frightening possibility – the possibility that this administration is being very consistent, that it is still guided by that same old doctrine that we have nothing to fear from the Soviets – if we just don’t provoke them. Well, World War II came about without provocation. It came because nations were weak, not strong, in the face of aggression. Those same lessons of the past surely apply today. Firmness based on a strong defense capability is not provocative. But weakness can be provocative simply because it is tempting to a nation whose imperialist ambitions are virtually unlimited. We find ourselves increasingly in a position of dangerous isolation. Our allies are losing confidence in us, and our adversaries no longer respect us. Frankfurter Allgemeine President of Bulgaria In Bulgaria, President Rosen Plevneliev said in an interview with Germany's Frankfurter Allgemeine published over the weekend that "Russia must learn to have partners, not vassals and subjects". "We all want as a partner a country that has produced Tchaikovsky, Tolstoy and Dostoevsky,"Plevneliev was quoted as saying. "But facts show that today we have to deal with another Russia – with a nationalist, aggressive state under a president who does not regard Europe as a partner, but as an opponent". Italy – La Stampa Lech Walesa Poland's legendary Solidarity Movement leader, Nobel Peace Prize laureate and former President Lech Walesa urged NATO to station nuclear missiles in Poland to deter a potential Russian threat in an interview with Italy's La Stampa published Monday. Putin is irresponsible and wants to sow havoc in Poland, as he did in Ukraine,"Walesa was quoted as saying. "So we want NATO to give us the best missiles at its disposal, install them here and point them in the right direction". Bulgaria Plans to Ground Its Russian-Made Fighter Jets  By Anna Dolgov  Oct. 07 2014 10:40  Last edited 10:40 Lucas Jackson / ReutersRossen Plevneliev, President of Bulgaria, addresses the 69th United Nations General Assembly at the U.N. headquarters in New York September 25, 2014. Bulgaria's military will scrap three dozen of its Russian-made fighter jets and bombers to reassert its independence from Moscow, the defense minister said, following the Bulgarian president's denouncement of Russia as a "nationalist, aggressive state". The plan to get rid of all Russian-made aircraft is part of Bulgaria's military development program through 2020 “Economic growth in conditions of globalization” Volume I 16 to further integrate the former Soviet bloc nation into the Western NATO defense alliance, of which it is a member, Bulgaria's Trud newspaper reported Monday. The military will present to parliament within six months a list of new airplanes to replace the 15 Russian-made MiG-29 and six MiG-21 fighters and 14 SU-25 bombers that remain in Bulgaria's air force, the report said. The plan, which Defense Minister Velizar Shalamanov described as a bid to strengthen Bulgaria's independence from Russia, is expected to go ahead despite protests by pilots and maintenance workers who expect the replacement of aircraft to cost 300 jobs, Trud reported. Russia's annexation of Crimea and its meddling in eastern Ukraine has prompted a series of moves from eastern European nations to boost their ties with NATO and strengthen defense against their former Moscow masters. Poland's legendary Solidarity Movement leader, Nobel Peace Prize laureate and former President Lech Walesa urged NATO to station nuclear missiles in Poland to deter a potential Russian threat in an interview with Italy's La Stampa published Monday. "Putin is irresponsible and wants to sow havoc in Poland, as he did in Ukraine," Walesa was quoted as saying. "So we want NATO to give us the best missiles at its disposal, install them here and point them in the right direction". In Bulgaria, President Rosen Plevneliev said in an interview with Germany's Frankfurter Allgemeine published over the weekend that "Russia must learn to have partners, not vassals and subjects". "We all want as a partner a country that has produced Tchaikovsky, Tolstoy and Dostoevsky,"Plevneliev was quoted as saying. "But facts show that today we have to deal with another Russia – with a nationalist, aggressive state under a president who does not regard Europe as a partner, but as an opponent". A recent survey by Russia's independent Levada Center pollster has indicated that years of President Vladimir Putin's rule have caused Russians to abandon their wish for a European future for their country. Despite harsh anti-Western rhetoric by Russia's state-run television channels, the number of Russians who wanted their country at some point to join the European Union had remained in a comfortable majority during the initial decade of Putin's government, but went into a nosedive a few years ago and hit an all-time low of 16 percent last month, according to Levada Center polls. Bulgaria's president told Frankfurter Allgemeine that "all Europeans have won with the fall of the Berlin Wall, gaining freedom, democracy, perspective". "However, Vladimir Putin sees the fall of the Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union as a catastrophe, which leads to his interpretation of history that opposes Europe and its values as a matter of principle," Plevneliev was quoted as saying. Finance Minister Urges Defense Budget Rethink Amid Bleak Economic Forecast  By Matthew Bodner  Oct. 07 2014 18:16  Last edited 18:16 Maxim Shemetov / Reuters Russia's Finance Minister Anton Siluanov speaks during the Reuters Russia Investment Summit in Moscow. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov says that Russia will not be able to afford its current level of military spending in the long term, as an economic slowdown amid declining oil prices and Western sanctions forces Moscow to drastically alter the expected funding environment. Russia is currently pursuing a 20 trillion ruble ($500 billion) rearmament program through 2020, and announced last month that another defense program with comparable spending is in the works for 2016-25. The 2016-25 rearmament plans, however, may not enjoy the same lavish level of funding as the ongoing program. "We want to reconsider the amount of resources devoted in the course of this new program, so that they are more realistic," Siluanov was quoted by RIA Novosti as saying Tuesday. Siluanov explained that the current proposals for the program were formulated when Russia's economic outlook Volume I International Scientific and Practical Conference 17 was brighter. But Russia's economy has suffered from various punitive measures enacted by Western governments over Moscow's annexation of Crimea in March and its alleged role in Ukraine's crisis. U.S. and EU sanctions, besides targeting specific Russian companies and individuals, have also made many foreign bankers skittish over investing in any companies based in Russia. Meanwhile, the declining value of the ruble, rising inflation, and falling oil prices have forced the Economic Development Ministry to halve their growth forecast for next year to 1 percent. "Right now we simply cannot afford to carry out [the 2016-25 armament plan] and will work out a means to determine what can be funded by the budget with the defense minister, "Siluanov said at a Federation Council hearing. Various statements from defense officials in recent months have painted an increasingly ambitious picture for the Russian government's military modernization goals. Most recently, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said that Russia's nuclear forces – the backbone of Russian military power – would be completely outfitted with new missile systems by 2020. Despite the strain on the federal budget, some analysts have said that high spending on defense helps boost the economy. A report released by Moscow's Higher School of Economics in late September showed that military and related defense expenditures, such as "the production of ships, airplanes, spacecraft and other means of transportation", was one of the primary driving forces of a surge in industrial production. However, the report cautioned that these developments mask stagnation across most other areas of manufacturing. Draft Law Allows Russia to Seize Foreign Assets in Response to Sanctions  Reuters  Sep. 26 2014 10:57  Last edited 10:57 Yevgeny Razumny / VedomostiRussia's economy is set to stagnate in the next two years as the country pays the price for the Ukraine crisis. Russian courts could get the green light to seize foreign assets on Russian territory under a draft law intended as a response to Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis. The draft, which was submitted to parliament on Wednesday by a pro-Kremlin deputy, would also allow state compensation for an individual whose property is seized in foreign jurisdictions. Italian authorities this week seized property worth about 30 million euros ($40 million) belonging to companies controlled by Arkady Rotenberg, an ally of President Vladimir Putin targeted by the U.S. and European Union sanctions. The draft law, published on a parliamentary database, would allow for compensation for Russian citizens who suffer because of an "unlawful court act" in a foreign jurisdiction and clear the way to foreign state assets in Russia being seized, even if they are subject to international immunity. Boris Nemtsov, a Kremlin critic who in the late 1990s was a senior member of government, said the bill was an attempt by Putin to shield Russian billionaires and officials from the impact of sanctions. "What is a strongman's friendship like?" he asked rhetorically on his Facebook page. "It is when your four villas, apartment and hotel are seized in Italy, and your accomplice in the Kremlin immediately introduces a bill to compensate for the losses from the Russian budget". Russia and the West are locked in their worst standoff in decades over the Ukraine crisis. Western powers have introduced several sets of sanctions against Moscow, ranging from visa bans and asset freezes to caps on access to overseas capital markets for Russian firms. Russia responded by introducing food bans against EU agriculture producers and has threatened more retaliatory measures if the West presses ahead with sanctions. Russia's economy is set to stagnate in the next two years as the country pays the price for the Ukraine crisis, lack of structural reforms and uncertain economic policy, the World Bank said in a report this week. Russian laws require three readings in the lower house and the approval of the upper house before going to Putin to be signed into law. “Economic growth in conditions of globalization” Volume I 18 DEVELOPMENT OF THE AGRI-FOOD SECTOR IN THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA Alexandru Stratan*, Victor Moroz*, Anatolie Ignat*, Eugenia Lucasenco* *National Institute for Economic Research, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova The agri-food sector of the Republic of Moldova has undergone significant changes in the past decades. In the context of Moldova's European aspirations, the modernization of the agri-food sector must comply with European patterns and trends that will allow the agri-food industry to adapt to the requirements of international markets, especially in terms of safety and quality of food. The trade policy pursued by the Republic of Moldova at the current stage is focused on geographical diversification of the agri-food exports, primarily to reduce the risks caused by widespread non-tariff measures to protect domestic markets. The main drivers of the integration processes are private business operators and traders. However, the efficiency of the newly emerged food value chains is still low. This investigation was done in the framework of the FP7 project “AGRICISTRADE” using the official statistical data, qualitative and quantitative studies and other relevant publications. In this paper the importance and the most recent changes of the agti-food sector of the Republic of Moldova were demonstrated, the main impediments were analyzed and proposals to foster the agri-food sector development were provided. Key words: agri-food sector, agriculture, food consumption, agri-food trade. Introduction. The Association Agreement between the European Union and the Republic of Moldova was signed on June 27, 2014 in Brussels, Belgium. The Agreement was ratified by the Parliament of the Republic of Moldova on July 2nd, 2014 and by the European Parliament on November 13, 2014. The Association Agreement establishes a new legal framework for the advancement of relations between Moldova and the EU towards a higher quality level – political association and economic integration with the EU [8]. The accession to the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements between the EU and Moldova was expected to boost trade relations with the European Union. In order to accompany these developments by analyzing the potential impact of these trade agreements and by delivering insights on the potential developments of the food, feed and biomass sectors in Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine the AGRICISTRADE Project was launched in 2014. AGRICISTRADE contributes to the analysis of the present situation, the potentials and the projection of future agri-food developments. The project results contribute to a fact-based and well-informed dialogue among EU policy makers on possible impacts of a DCFTA on CIS agricultural development potentials [1]. The purpose of this article is to assess the impact of recent changes and identify possible opportunities for accelerating the development of the agri-food sector of the Republic of Moldova. Material and methods Given the challenges of the recent development in food sector the following research methods were used: analysis of the food sector structure and development tendencies, analysis of the country’s food security, analysis of the agri-food trade for main groups of agri-food products and countries, analysis of the impact of external shocks over the export development and country’s economic stability and food security. As main sources of primary information for this study were used reports elaborated with the contribution of authors in the framework of the FP7 project “AGRICISTRADE”, data from the publications of the National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova and the databases of the National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova. As a secondary source of information a range of articles and studies elaborated by local and foreign experts were used. Results and discussion Primary agriculture Favorable climate and high quality soils historically have determined Moldova’s agricultural specialization, particularly in the production of high value crops like fruits and vegetables. Agriculture contributed with almost 12.5% of the country GDP in the year 2013. About 29% of the active population of the country was engaged in agriculture in the year 2013 [5]. A great part of the Moldovan agricultural sector is composed of two major sub-sectors: corporate sector comprising large companies and the individual sector that includes peasant farms and household land in private property. On the one hand, small farms, especially subsistence and semi-subsistence farms generate a limited surplus of high value-added crops (fruits, nuts, grapes, vegetables, potatoes) that are mostly sold in open air agricultural markets [4]. In the same time large scale agricultural companies are specialized in the production of low value-added crops (such as cereals, oilseeds, sugar beet), and employ limited labor force due to the high level of mechanized agricultural operations. This specialization has been driven by a number of factors such as the relatively low production cost of these crops, the availability of agricultural machinery allowing the rapid cultivation on large areas, relatively simple and cheap post-harvest facilities, as well as assured markets for these commodities. General objective of the agri-food sector of the Republic of Moldova is formulated as the following: Increase competitiveness of the agri-food sector through modernization and market integration. Specific objectives are related to: Volume I International Scientific and Practical Conference 19 modernization of agri-food chain in order to meet EU requirements on food safety and quality; facilitation the access to capital, inputs and output markets for farmers; reform of education, scientific research and rural extension services in the agri-food sector, and creation of integrated agriculture information system [3]. Input production At the national scale just a few companies provide supply services for agricultural farms. The most important one is the Moldagrotehnica SA that offers a large range of ploughs, seeders, cultivators and heavy disc harrows. In recent years, the company established close cooperation with foreign companies such as: Dutch AP MACHINEBOUW, Slovenia - SIP, Germany - WIRGEN and Kijner Import-Export and Italian-MAURA. Another supplier of agricultural equipment is the Institute of Agricultural Technique Institute (ITA) "Mecagro". The Institute elaborates technical document and policies for the development of mechanized agricultural sector and efficient use of technical means, but also performs scientific research and technological designs, develops technologies and technical means for the agricultural sector and for the production and use of the renewable energy. Input use Moldovan agricultural production is entirely dependent on imported agrochemicals products, seeds and fuel and this has a strong impact on the competitiveness of food products. Primary inputs such as fuel, fertilizer and chemicals for plant protection necessary for agricultural production are all imported. This dependence makes Moldovan agriculture subject to international price volatility. Insufficient access to high quality inputs remains a constraint for competitiveness in a number of sub-sectors. Manufacturers of high value crops such as fruits and vegetables, which rely mainly on imported seeds and seedlings, appear to be most affected by lengthy and costly procedures for registration of varieties. The test requirements and registration that govern imports of seeds and seedlings are probably the most important constraints and are currently nominated by stakeholders as an obstacle for production of more competitive crop varieties due to the costs involved and delay of access. This is also an obstacle to access to inputs for the agri-food processors. After a strong decline of mineral fertilizers use during 90s the situation was slightly improved. Thus comparing with the year 2005 the quantity of mineral fertilizers use increased more than twice in 2013 (see table 1). Table 1. Fertilizers’ use in the Republic of Moldova 2006-2013 and its ratio 2013 vs. 2006, thousand tones, % 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013/2006, % Pure nutrients use. total 15.4 20.1 22.7 17.0 20.1 23.6 34.7 44.8 290.9 N. total 12.8 17.1 19.9 14.6 16.4 19.2 26.9 34.0 265.6 P2O5. total 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.6 2.4 2.9 5.6 8.3 436.8 K2O. total 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.5 2.2 2.5 357.1 Source: Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of Moldova, 2014 [5]. However level of agricultural land fertilization is much lower comparing with EU and other neighboring countries. Utilization of organic fertilizers demonstrates the same tendencies. The prospects for continued growth in demand for value- added food and agricultural products constitute an incentive for increased attention to agro industries development within the context of economic growth, food security and poverty-fighting strategies [7]. During the transition period the industry, and particularly the food processing industry, has maintained its position as an important sector of the national economy and as a foundation for the continuous development of the country. The leading positions in the structure of industrial production belong to the branches specialized in the processing of local raw material, mainly of agricultural origin. The food processing sector involves about 1,260 companies. The share of food industry accounted for about 43% of the total industrial production in the Republic of Moldova in 2013, although this share was 52% in 2004 [5]. In the same time the large scale food industry is characterized by underutilization of its capacities and insufficient investments. High levels of moral and physical depreciation of the industrial capacities and infrastructure is typical for local food processing companies. A large part of processing equipment and technologies is not energy efficient and do not meet modern standards. Many enterprises lack modern management practices and necessary investment capital. The lack of financial resources leads to inadequate compensation and to the exodus of the skilled labour force. Lack of horizontal and vertical coordination of supply chains is another important reason underlying the low competitiveness of the agri-food sector. The reasons causing low prices of agricultural products include insufficient development of the agri-food value chains, low bargaining power of the small scale agricultural producers, unstable quality of the agricultural products, poor infrastructure and limited access to foreign markets. Value chain deficiencies lead to large discrepancies between the farm gate price and the consumer price, resulting in low-income, low investment and persistently low quality at the farm level. Despite favourable circumstances in international markets the development of food sector of the Republic of Moldova had an unstable character. Production volume of food and beverage industry in 2013 amounted to only about 87% of production in 2005 (see Table 2). “Economic growth in conditions of globalization” Volume I 20 Table 2. Indices of industrial production, by most important types of activities, 2006-2013 (2005 = 100%) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Industry – total, of which: 95,2 94,0 95,4 75,2 82,2 90,1 88,3 94,3 Processing industry, of which 93,5 91,8 92,8 71,7 79,5 88,8 87,4 94,3 Manufacture of food products and beverages 81,6 75,2 82,0 67,6 75,7 80,9 82,0 87,2 Production, processing and preserving of meat and meat products 109,8 142,8 147,1 121,8 132,5 150,7 174,2 179,4 Processing and preserving of fruits and vegetables 106,5 115,6 109,2 84,1 90,4 118,0 98,0 111,4 Manufacture of dairy products 98,2 101,7 108,3 98,2 107,1 109,3 117,3 127,7 Manufacture of products of flour- milling industry, of starches and starch products 106,5 95,1 105,0 88,7 81,6 80,3 70,5 85,9 Manufacture of bread and pastry products 106,4 118,0 129,1 121,2 127,6 137,3 136,5 143,2 Manufacture of wine 50,9 36,3 45,2 35,7 40,3 41,2 41,9 38,8 Source: elaborated by authors based on data of the National Bureau of Statistics [6] However this decrease was mostly due to the reduction of wine production after the restrictions imposed by Russian Federation for Moldovan wine exports in 2006. The most important products of the food processing sector include wine, meat, fruit and vegetable products, dairy products and bakery products. The ratio between the value added in agriculture and agri-food industry shows that during the recent years the value added in agriculture is higher than value added created in the food processing industry – more than 2.4 times on average for the period of 2007-2013 (see Figure 1). At the same time, food processing industry has higher productivity as compared with the agricultural production. 2.9 2.5 2.72.8 2.02.02.2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Fig. 1. The ratio between value added in agriculture and agri-food industry, 2007-2013 Sources: elaborated by authors based on data from National Accounts of the National Bureau of Statistics, 2014 [6] Consumption At the national level Republic of Moldova is food secure. It produces its main food products, exports its surplus food, and imports what it needs to meet its food requirements. Food security indicators prove that in the Republic of Moldova the level of per capita food consumption have stabilized during the last years. However there are some evident changes in consumption patterns. Thus in the period of 2006-2013 the consumption of cereals and bread products has been steadily reduced by about 20%. Consumption of potatoes and vegetables has been reduce even more significantly with about 40% and 35% respectively. In the same time consumption of grapes increased twice, while consumption of meat increased with about 21% (see table 3). Table 3. Human consumption per capita and its variation 2013 vs. 2006, 2006-2013, kg, %, 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013/2006, % Cereals 173.5 146.7 160 152 152.4 148.6 141.0 137.4 79.2 Sunflower 1.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.5 93.8 Potatoes 87.6 58.8 58.0 59.3 56.7 59.8 52.3 52.7 60.2 Vegetables 131.9 75.8 99.1 106.3 109.6 114.6 78.2 85.9 65.1 Fruits 35.8 24.1 36.7 30.5 34.3 34.6 34.3 35.1 98.0 Volume I International Scientific and Practical Conference 21 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013/2006, % Grapes 3.0 3.8 4.4 4.1 6.4 8.1 6.4 6.4 213.3 Meat 38.3 36.0 32.3 29.5 35.6 37.9 39.7 46.2 120.6 Eggs 167.5 177.1 141.1 161.7 184.9 189.6 155.7 165.0 98.5 Milk and milk products 177.3 175.4 155.0 168.9 175.3 170.2 170.8 166.0 93.6 Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova, 2014 [5] Another aspect of the consumption patterns is reflected by the level of daily calorie intake that shows an increasing trend since 2008 after a decline during the period of 2006-2007. There are also some other interesting trends that show an approximation of daily calorie intakes in rural and urban areas (see figure 2). 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ca lor ies / d ay / p ers on Total per country Urban Rural Fig. 2. Average calorie intake in the Republic of Moldova in rural and urban areas, calories / day / person, 2006-2013 Source: National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova, 2014 [6] The nowadays food security challenges in the Republic of Moldova have two major dimensions. The first dimension seeks to maintain and increase the country’s ability to face the national food demands through assurance of the internal food production, import of the food products that cannot be produced efficiently in the country, and exports of products that have a comparative advantage. The second dimension is related to the reduction of the increasing inequalities and expansion of the poverty among the majority of the households of the Republic of Moldova that is manifested by inadequate and unstable food supplies, lack of purchasing power, weak institutional support networks, weak food emergency management systems and unemployment. In addition to natural risks, commercial risks largely influence the level of food security in the Republic of Moldova. The evolution of prices in Moldova follows the trends of international food prices, agricultural products and resources for agricultural production in relative terms. Like other small countries with low income, Republic of Moldova faces additional challenges when making an effort to refocus and modernize the sector of primary production and processing industry in order to supply the local market with basic food products. The level of food self-sufficiency of the country is rather high, however in several years it decreases to a critical degree due to severe droughts (see table 4). Table 4. Self-sufficiency rate (%), 2006-2012 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Cereals 99.2 70.6 143.4 105.0 117.8 115.6 60.8 150.3 Sunflower 145.0 65.5 178.0 121.4 156.6 195.9 143.8 326.3 Potatoes 91.7 67.0 93.4 89.4 100.4 116.2 66.6 89.8 Vegetables 103.5 84.8 110.1 98.6 104.2 100.5 93.3 102.4 Fruits 195.8 227.0 222.2 213.9 207.7 237.7 245.2 264.2 Grapes 102.4 106.8 102.6 104.3 104.6 102.8 103.9 103.7 Meat 67.8 84.5 67.8 86.7 86.0 86.1 81.5 69.8 Eggs 112.7 101.6 100.0 100.3 98.8 95.4 102.2 98.0 Milk and milk products 97.5 95.0 97.1 95.0 94.1 92.0 84.7 86.8 Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova, 2014 [6]. Food export In the context of Moldova's European aspirations, the modernization of the agri-food sector must comply with European patterns and trends that will allow the agri-food industry to adapt to the requirements of international markets, especially in terms of safety and quality of food. The trade policy pursued by the Republic of Moldova at the current stage is focused on geographical diversification of the agri-food exports, primarily to reduce the risks caused by widespread non- “Economic growth in conditions of globalization” Volume I 22 tariff measures to protect domestic markets. The average volume of exports of agri-food products for the period of 2010-2014 amounts to 922 million USD. Export geography includes 112 countries, of which the top five account for 54% of exports. These are the Russian Federation, Romania, Belarus, Ukraine and Italy. The export structure is dominated by few groups of products, among which the leading role traditionally belongs to wine products, fruit, sunflower and vegetable oils. Export of livestock products is carried out on a much smaller scale. In general, the foreign market is supplied mainly with agricultural raw materials and semi-finished products (see figure 3). Agri-food exports of Republic of Moldova have been strongly marked by a significant reduction of supplies to Russia in 2001-2008 and the embargo in 2013. In 2013, more than one quarter of Moldovan export revenues originated from Russia. Currently, Russia uses this economic leverage to exercise pressure on Moldova through a number of trade restrictions. The average volume of imports during the same period was 705 million USD. The geography of import trade is more diverse and includes 159 countries, of which the top five countries account for 55% of agri-food imports and encompasses Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, Germany and Romania. Primarily tobacco, vegetables, citrus fruits, various food products, alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, meat and edible meat offal are imported into the country. Fig. 3. Structure of agri-food exports of the Republic of Moldova by major products and trading partners during the period 2010-2014 Source: elaborated by authors based on UN Comtrade data, 2015 The Republic of Moldova is a member of the WTO and has signed trade agreements with 93 countries. An important factor of the economic growth of the Republic of Moldova is the trade relations between the EU and Moldova. The EU's decision to open its market unilaterally to the Republic of Moldova in 2008, through the so-called autonomous trade preferences has led to the growth of mutual trade turnover. This trend will continue due to the recent signing of an Association Agreement, which includes a deep and comprehensive free trade area (DCFTA) between the EU and Moldova. This agreement creates new and closer political and economic relations between the EU and the Republic of Moldova. At the same time, Moldova committed to the development of mutually advantageous trade with the CIS and other countries. However, it should be noted the slow pace of growth in agricultural exports in 2004-2013. According to this index Moldova’s rank is the last among the CIS countries. In the same period the volume of imports has grew at a faster pace [2]. Volume I International Scientific and Practical Conference 23 Discussions on strengthening the export orientation of the economy are conducted in Moldova for a long period of time. However, in society and in government circles is growing awareness that the export development is constrained by a number of general economic issues. The main ones are as follows: - The high level of businesses fragmentation in the agricultural sector, food processing and foreign trade; - Low level of productivity in all areas of agri-food sector, as a consequence of the use of outdated technologies; - Unbalanced marketing activities, expressed in excessive concentration of the agricultural and food products trade in certain directions, and the sporadic nature of this trade with other countries and regions. - Lack of interaction in the field of technology transfer between business, academic and university centers. Conclusions  The agro-food sector in the Republic of Moldova is characterized by weak links between primary agricultural production, processing industry and trade sector, underutilization of the production capacities, lack of investments, outdated equipment and standards.  There are positive trends in the development of the agri-food sector of the Republic of Moldova during the last years. However the vulnerability of this sector to natural, economic and commercial risks remains to be very high.  The level of country’s food security for major agri-food products has stabilized during the last years. Nevertheless in several years it decreases to a critical level due to negative impact of natural hazards. Trade restrictions exacerbated by natural calamities could increase the risk of food insecurity.  The current situation in the international trade with agri-food products placed the Republic of Moldova in a difficult position. Exchange of sanctions between a number of Western countries and the Russian Federation provides multiple restrictions on the conduct of economic activities, including international trade that makes it necessary to review existing economic policies. Prohibitions and restrictions on the part of the Russian Federation on the import of agricultural products from the Republic of Moldova are forcing the government to urgently diversify export markets and to take measures to strengthen the economic security of the country.  The food sector of the Republic of Moldova needs specific actions in order to stimulate development of the high value agriculture through creation of product sales centres, strengthening quality control, organizing regional wholesale markets, assisting producers to sell their products, development of market infrastructure at central level, development of the post harvest and market infrastructure. Acknowledgments The authors wish to express their appreciation to the FP7 project “AGRICISTRADE” team for their efforts, and valuable inputs and comments. REFERENCES 1. AGRICISTRADE Project official web-site (2015). Accessed: http://www.agricistrade.eu/ 2. AGRICISTRADE Project official web-site (2015b). Macroeconomic context of the agri-food sector in the European Union’s Eastern Neighbours, July 2015. Accessed: http://www.agricistrade.eu/document-library 3. MAFI. Official website. Accessed: http://www.maia.gov.md/sites/default/files/article/1662048_md_ard_strategy_e.pdf 4. Moroz V., Ignat A. External factors’ impact over the agricultural sector of the Republic of Moldova. În: Scientific Papers Series „Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development”. University of Agricultural Sciences and Veterinary Medicine. Bucharest – Romania. Volume 15, Issue 2, 2015, pp 221-226. 5. National Bureau of Statistics, 2014. Statistical yearbook of the Republic of Moldova, Chisinau 6. National Bureau of Statistics, 2014. Statbank database. Official web site. Access: http://www.statistica.md/ 7. da Silva Carlos A. et al. Agro-industries for development. Edited by FAO / CAB International, 2009 8. Support to the DCFTA process in the Republic of Moldova (2015). Accessed: http://dcfta.md/eng/continutul-acordului- de-asociere-dintre-rm-si-ue “Economic growth in conditions of globalization” Volume I 24 СОВРЕМЕННАЯ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ПОЛИТИКА РЕСПУБЛИКИ БЕЛАРУСЬ Александр Шуст, магистр экономических наук, Академия управления при Президенте Республики Беларусь1 Economic policy, as an instrument of state regulation of the economy, developed and implemented in complex, fast-changing and poorly predictable conditions. Currently, the focus on the scientific substantiation of the imperatives of economic policy of Belarus and the revision of its key provisions is especially important, given the critical state of the world economy and national economies of major trading partners, development of regional integration processes and difficult situation in Europe. The purpose of the work is to disclose the features of the process of formation and implementation of state policy of Belarus, determining the imperatives of development and economic policies in accordance with the requirements of socio-economic development of the country. The methodological basis of the study is a systematic approach, pre-empting the study of economic phenomena in their interrelationship and interdependence. In the work the following scientific methods are applied; methods of historical and logical, comparative analysis, as well as scientific abstraction, induction and deduction categories, comparison. The study gives the scientific assessment of the current economic situation, formulates the goal of economic policy of the country in the short and medium term, and proposes the basic directions of the structural reform of the economy of Belarus. Key words: Belarus, economic policies, government regulation of the economy, the global economic crisis, regional integration, structural reforms. В настоящее время Республика Беларусь характеризуется значительной открытостью национальной экономики, высокой внешнеторговой квотой (108% в 2014 году), глубоким участием в региональных интеграционных процессах и международном разделении труда (коэффициент МРТ равен 2,1 в 2014 году). Ведущие отрасли народного хозяйства обладают богатой внутренней структурой и экспортной ориентацией, поддерживаемые высокоразвитым человеческим капиталом. Одновременно на экономическом развитии Беларуси продолжают сказываться сложности переходного периода развития и процесса реформирования, отягощаемые неблагоприятными внешними факторами. Ключевые слова: Беларусь, экономическая политика, государственное регулирование экономики, мировой экономический кризис, региональная интеграция, структурные реформы. 1. Анализ текущей ситуации В течение 2013-2014 годов совпадение набора неблагоприятных факторов привело к подавлению экономической активности и длительному и нарастающему давлению на платежный баланс. Низкая экономическая активность в странах-основных торговых партнерах, прежде всего в России (рост ВВП в 2014 году на 0,6% [1]) и Украине (падение ВВП в 2014 году на 28,1% [2]), усиленная геополитической напряженностью и сопутствующими проблемами, привели к сокращению спроса на белорусский экспорт. Опережающая девальвация национальных валют в странах-партнерах по ЕЭП (в процентном отношении к доллару США за период с начала 2014 года: Россия – 107,8% [3], Казахстан – 56,2% [4]), а также в Украине (168,3% [5]), привела к дальнейшему снижению конкурентоспособности экспорта. Свой негативный вклад в динамику экспорта внесло также резкое падение цен на нефть и нефтепродукты во второй половине 2014 года и в целом нисходящая динамика мировых цен на калийные удобрения. В результате, рост экономики Беларуси в 2014 году составил всего 1,6%, промышленности – 1,9%, падение инвестиций в основной капитал составило 8,5%, потребительская инфляция достигла 16,2% [6], тем самым значительно превысив целевые ориентиры. Вышеуказанные неблагоприятные факторы было сложно заранее предвидеть при выработке политики, они носят экзогенный характер. Благодаря более жесткой макроэкономической политике в 2014 году произошло существенное сокращение дефицита текущего счета платежного баланса (6,7% от ВВП в 2014 году по сравнению с 10,4% от ВВП в 2013 году [7]). Несмотря на это низкий уровень международных резервов и наступление пикового периода выплат по внешнему долгу создали существенные риски для поддержания дальнейшей внешней устойчивости. Кроме того, быстрое и значительное ослабление курса российского рубля на фоне падения цен на нефть и замедления экономической активности в странах-основных торговых партнерах значительно повлияло как на внутренний рынок, так и на условия внешней торговли. Все это потребовало корректировки макроэкономической политики с целью нивелирования отрицательных эффектов от внешних шоков и поддержания золотовалютных резервов. Негативные процессы в экономике отразились и на ситуации в бюджетной сфере. Более низкие, чем прогнозировались темпы экономического роста, меньшие объемы внешней торговли, ухудшение финансовых результатов работы предприятий реального сектора экономики привели к существенному (1,4% от ВВП) недопоступлению доходов бюджета в течение 2014 года. Тем не менее, благодаря жестким консолидационным мерам как со стороны доходов, так и расходов (прежде всего, сдерживание непервоочередных расходов), по итогам 2014 года консолидированный бюджет исполнен с профицитом в 1% от ВВП [8]. Долгосрочная устойчивость государственного долга не вызывает сомнений. По состоянию на 1 июля 2015 года, государственный долг Республики Беларусь составил 23% ВВП, что относит Беларусь к группе стран с 1 Александр ШУСТ, smo.pac.by@gmail.com Volume I International Scientific and Practical Conference 25 умеренным уровнем долговой нагрузки [9]. В то же время, нахождение страны в рамках пиковых выплат по внешнему госдолгу в условиях низкого уровня резервов и фактически закрытого доступа на рынки капитала создают краткосрочные риски для платежного баланса. 2. Экономическая программа белорусского правительства Основной целью программы является поддержка платежного баланса в период действия неблагоприятных внешних факторов и пиковых выплат но внешнему государственному долгу. Программа нацелена на восстановление макроэкономической стабильности, что обеспечит условия для возврата на траекторию устойчивого экономического роста в среднесрочной перспективе. В рамках данной программы начала осуществляться комплексная экономическая политика в основных секторах экономики Беларуси. Денежно-кредитная политика направлена на замедление инфляционных процессов в экономике. Национальным банком определен целевой параметр по инфляции на 2015 год в размере 18% с допустимым отклонением плюс/минус 2 процентных пункта [10]. Для достижения цели по инфляции ведется контроль за денежным предложением (режим монетарного таргетирования). Предполагается обеспечить прирост средней широкой денежной массы (промежуточного ориентира денежно-кредитной политики) на уровне 30% в декабре 2015 года к декабрю 2014 года (количественный критерий реализации программы). В качестве операционного ориентира определен прирост средней рублевой денежной базы. Изменены подходы к рефинансированию банков. С 1 февраля 2015 года возобновлены регулярные аукционные операции на открытом рынке. Для гибкого реагирования на резкие изменения ситуации как внутри страны, так и на внешних финансовых рынках с 9 января 2014 года осуществлен переход к более гибкой курсовой политике, предусматривающей минимизацию валютных интервенций в среднесрочном периоде при ограничении дневной волатильности стоимости корзины валют. При этом в структуре корзины валют удельный вес российского рубля увеличен до 40%, доли доллара США и евро снижены до 30% каждая. Правительство планирует дальнейшее повышение гибкости курсовой политики посредством перехода к торгам в режиме „непрерывный двойной аукцион”. Переход к торгам в режиме „непрерывный двойной аукцион” в сочетании с использованием нового правила валютных интервенций позволит обменному курсу своевременно реагировать на изменение спроса и предложения иностранной валюты на валютном рынке, в то же время ограничение объемов интервенций Национального банка будет соответствовать задаче сохранения золотовалютных резервов. Показатель чистых международных резервов станет количественным критерием реализации программы. Принимаются меры по либерализации внутреннего валютного рынка, призванные обеспечить полное открытие внебиржевого рынка, а также снижение нормы обязательной продажи валютной выручки субъектами хозяйствования-экспортерами до 30% до 1 января 2016 года. Для достижения цели по инфляции проводится гибкая процентная политика, основанную на рыночных принципах. Посредством ее инструментов процентные ставки кредитно-депозитного рынка должны поддерживаться на положительном уровне в реальном выражении. Также будет осуществляться регулирование кредитной активности на основе общепринятого рыночного инструментария, прежде всего пруденциального характера. Для этого будет проводиться постоянный мониторинг сбалансированности активно-пассивных операций банков и выполнение ими показателя покрытия ликвидности, рассчитываемого в соответствии с рекомендациями Базель III. Сохраняются жесткие подходы к финансированию государственных программ и мероприятий. К концу 2015 года запланировано сокращение доли задолженности по кредитам в рамках финансирования государственных программ и мероприятий в требованиях банков к экономике не менее, чем на 1,5 процентного пункта. С 2016 года кредитование новых государственных проектов будет осуществляться через ОАО „Банк развития Республики Беларусь”. Для повышения привлекательности банковского сектора для внешних инвесторов банки осуществят передачу части „плохих” активов на баланс ОАО „Банк развития Республики Беларусь” и Министерству финансов с передачей в доверительное управление ОАО „Банк развития Республики Беларусь”. Бюджетно-налоговая политика в настоящее время осуществляется в непростых условиях. Консолидированный бюджет 2015 года сформирован с профицитом, но основан на показателях, достижение которых в настоящее время является маловероятным. Более низкие темпы экономического роста, более низкие цены на нефть, более слабый курс белорусского рубля, более высокая ставка рефинансирования Национального банка – все эти факторы, объективно, ведут к существенному разрыву между доходами и расходами бюджета. Согласно различным сценариям, недопоступление доходов может составить около 30 трлн. белорусских рублей, поэтому правительством принимаются жесткие консолидационные меры. Меры со стороны доходов принесут дополнительные 13,5 трлн. белорусских рублей за счет введения вывозной таможенной пошлины на калийные удобрения, увеличения сбора с газоснабжающих организаций и продления ограничений по возврату НДС. Меры со стороны расходов сэкономят 10 трлн. рублей и включают ограничение роста заработной платы в бюджетной сфере в 2015 году (не более 10% в номинальном выражении), секвестр госинвестпрограммы на 10%, оптимизацию других расходов. В оставшейся части будут предприняты меры по закрытию бюджетных дисбалансов, включающие заимствования на мировых финансовых рынках в целях рефинансирования внешнего государственного долга, получение средств от приватизации высокодоходных активов, а также дополнительное сокращение расходов. “Economic growth in conditions of globalization” Volume I 26 Структурные реформы. Экономический рост, основанный на стимулировании государственных инвестиций в основные средства, позволил белорусской экономике достичь значительных успехов за прошедший период своей независимости, но возможности дальнейшего использования данного источника быстро сокращаются, а в ряде случаев создают структурные макроэкономические дисбалансы. Произведено значительное накопление основных средств и повышение капиталовооруженности труда, поэтому дальнейшие вложения государства в инвестиции не дают быстрой отдачи в виде экономического роста. Одновременно, с учетом роста внешнего долга, возможности привлечения внешних ресурсов для массовых инвестиций сокращаются. Основные источники экономического роста в Беларуси лежат в области проведения изменений в экономике, направленных на повышение эффективности, производительность и привлечение частных инвестиций. Это может быть достигнуто по ряду направлений:  повышение мобильности факторов производства и их переток в секторы с более высокой производительностью;  повышение эффективности сектора государственных предприятий;  создание благоприятной среды для динамичного развития частного сектора и привлечение прямых иностранных инвестиций. Эффективная реализация данных механизмов развития напрямую зависит от безусловного обеспечения макроэкономической стабильности. Помимо реализации жесткой денежно-кредитной и бюджетно-налоговой политики Правительство Республики Беларусь намерено принять ряд мер, направленных на устранение структурных дисбалансов в экономике. Их реализация позволит не только сбалансировать экономику в текущем периоде, но, прежде всего, устранить предпосылки для возникновения дисбалансов в будущем. Запланировано сокращение объемов директивного кредитования экономики и изменены подходы к оказанию государственной поддержки. Отказ (перенос сроков) от реализации инвестиционных проектов, субсидируемых государством и не носящих стратегический характер, является наиболее эффективным и безболезненным механизмом корректировки внутреннего спроса. В перспективе инвестиционные проекты будут финансироваться преимущественно на конкурентных условиях. Государственная поддержка будет оказываться в ограниченном объеме только в целях скорейшего достижения приоритетов социально-экономического развития, на конкурсной основе и независимо от формы собственности, что повысит ее эффективность и стратегическую направленность. Исходя из этого, в 2015 году запланированы:  полный отказ от выдачи банками кредитных ресурсов по новым инвестиционным проектам на льготных условиях. Финансироваться будут только проекты с высокой степенью готовности (более 80%);  пересмотр подходов к оказанию государственной поддержки в рамках программ развития с 2016 года. Новые подходы подразумевают формирование программ развития как инструмента достижения целей социально- экономического развития на среднесрочную перспективу, утверждение на уровне Президента Республики Беларусь программ развития и объемов их финансирования (в процентах к ВВП), отбор инвестиционных проектов в рамках подпрограмм развития на конкурсной основе независимо от формы собственности заявителя, ежегодный анализ эффективности программ развития с возможностью их пересмотра. Будет обеспечено сокращение накопленного дисбаланса между оплатой и производительностью труда. Это позволит повысить конкурентоспособность белорусских предприятий и поддержать объемы производства на потенциальном уровне. С этой целью в 2015 году запланировано:  ограничение роста номинальной заработной платы в бюджетном секторе не более 10%;  отказ от озвучивания целевых ориентиров по заработной плате в экономике;  установление запрета для организаций государственной формы собственности на повышение фонда оплаты труда темпами, превышающими рост производительности труда;  ужесточение подходов к кредитованию банками коммерческих организаций, что ограничит возможности повышения фонда оплаты труда в нерентабельных и низкорентабельных коммерческих организациях;  сокращение субсидирования (в том числе перекрестного субсидирования) услуг ЖКХ и транспорта. Запланировано повышение возмещения населением в 2015 году стоимости услуг транспорта до 65%, ЖКХ – до 35%, с выходом на 100% к 2017 году по всем услугам ЖКХ, кроме тепловой энергии. Либерализация рынков. Введение временных административных ограничений возможно для стабилизации ситуации на рынках, однако такие ограничения не могут являться долговременным решением проблем, поэтому Правительство Республики Беларусь намерено продолжить курс на либерализацию рынков. Ожидается