Browsing by Author "Soldan, Elena"

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    Demographic window of opportunity, first and second demographic dividends: evidence from the world
    (INCE, ASEM, 2024) Soldan, Elena
    Current trends in population age composition led to increased interest in the potential economic impact of these trends. “The demographic window of opportunity” and “demographic dividend” present the two phenomena that address these concerns from an optimistic viewpoint. Over a certain period, a particular configuration of the population’s age structure when the working-age population predominates - the “demographic window of opportunity”- can create incentives for economic development, thus obtaining the demographic dividend. This paper aims to compare the demographic window of opportunity period and demographic dividend manifestation in selected countries from various parts of the world. The growth rate of support ratio was used to identify the demographic window of opportunity. The methodology for estimating the demographic dividend is that proposed by the NTA project. In addition, within NTA methodology, it is possible to capture both accounting and productivity aspects of the impact of the population by age group and differentiate the demographic dividend into the first and second demographic dividend. Hence, although manifested in an ageing population, certain economic behaviours, such as increasing savings and investments, can positively influence economic development, thus obtaining the second demographic dividend. This article presents evidence from selected countries on the demographic window of opportunity period as well as the first and second demographic dividends. It concludes by underlying the importance the demographic window of opportunity concept for the demographic dividend analysis.
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    The economic life cycle and the demographic dividend under the NTA approach, evidence from european countries
    (INCE, 2023) Soldan, Elena
    This article aims to realize a comparative analysis of the potential demographic dividend and the economic life cycle profiles for several European countries. The demographic dividend is a concept that denotes the positive demographic impact on economic development resulting from the changes in population age structure. Countries where the working-age population predominates have the opportunity to accelerate economic development, thus obtaining the demographic dividend. In estimating the potential demographic dividend, the NTA methodology found its applicability through the economic support ratio indicator, a composite indicator that includes the characteristics of the population structure by age group, and also the production and consumption profiles for each of the age groups. The difference between consumption and income constitutes, the deficit or surplus of the economic life cycle. The comparative analysis of the consumption and income profiles, the surplus and deficits of the economic life cycle, the economic support ratio indicator, and the demographic dividends in the selected countries were carried out. The research results show that, although some countries register a population structure beneficial to economic development, the profiles of the economic life cycle are heterogeneous, reflecting the different situations in the labor market and individual productive behavior. Identifying the drivers needed to improve life cycle surplus would provide the necessary support for identifying country-specific methods for achieving the demographic dividend. The article was elaborated within the State Program Project (2020-2023) 20.80009.0807.21 „Migration, demographic changes, and situation stabilization policies”.
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    Fertility dynamics in Sweden, Spain, the Czech Republic and Ukraine: a cohorte perspective
    (INCE, 2018) Soldan, Elena; Gagauz, Olga
    The present study aims to explore the dynamics of the cohort fertility in Sweden, Spain, the Czech Republic and Ukraine. The postponement and recuperation of fertility are analysed in order to find the differences within this process and how it is reflected in complete cohort fertility rate. The study is based on the Human Fertility Database that provides high quality, comparable and detailed data for comparative analysis of the fertility postponement and recuperation process of childbearing. The benchmark model proposed by Sobotka, Zeman, Lesthaeghe and Frejka has been used as the main tool. The results show that the diversity of complete cohort fertility rates of the 1970s cohort of women is determined by the different level of recuperation of the postponed births. Sweden and the Czech Republic, which experience the stronger recuperation of the postponed births, have a complete cohort fertility higher than in countries with weaker Recuperation Index (Spain and Ukraine). The lower fertility levels of the early 1970s cohorts compared to 1960 cohort was driven by the diverse recuperation attainment according to birth orders. The low fertility in Ukraine was influenced by the reduced recuperation especially of the second birth, while in Spain the low fertility is also driven by the increase in childlessness. Due to the policies that encourage gender equality and availability of high-quality childcare provision, Sweden has a high recuperation of second and third birth. The limited recuperation of the postponed births in Spain is a result of the persistence of double burden for women and of the rigid labour market. A successful transition to the market economy and accessibility of childcare provision allowed the Czech Republic to have a recovery of second birth higher than Ukraine.